The PJ Tatler

Republicans Lead in the Polls, and in the Early Voting

According to most polls, Republicans have owned the “enthusiasm gap” for months. They also lead on the generic ballot on the question of which party the voters want to control Congress. President Obama has tended to dismiss his party’s concerns by promising that the Democrats’ turnout machine will save them

The Washington Post is tracking early voting trends. The president may be just as accurate on turnout as he was when he predicted that Ebola wouldn’t come to America.

Two weeks ago, we looked at initial early voting data compiled by the U.S. Election Project with the aim of sussing out how campaigns were doing at putting votes in the bank. At that point, it seemed like Democrats were doing particularly well in Iowa and North Carolina compared to voter registration numbers. Republicans were doing well in other battleground states.

Now, that’s changed. Compared to overall voter registration, Iowa and North Carolina Democrats are doing much worse than earlier in the month, and Republicans in those states much better. We’ve also added new states that recently began early voting: Nevada, California and Colorado. In each, Republicans are outperforming Democrats.

The news that Republicans are outperforming Democrats even in California early voting is bad enough for Democrats. But add in that the Democrats are even underperforming versus independents, who are even being targeted much by either party, and you have the makings of a disaster. For Democrats.