The PJ Tatler

Debunking the 'Escape from Violence' Meme as Reason for Illegal Kids Coming to US

The Center for American Progress — President Obama’s favorite think tank — has offered up a statistical analysis that “proves” the reason Central American children are fleeing their homes and coming to America is violence and not “deferred action” (amnesty).

An analysis of the available data suggests that:

Violence is among of the main drivers causing the increase. Whereas Central American countries that are experiencing high levels of violence have seen thousands of children flee, others with lower levels of violence are not facing the same outflow.

By contrast, the evidence does not support the argument that DACA or lax border enforcement has caused the increase in children fleeing to the United States.

Case closed, right? Whatever the statistics say, the Department of Homeland Security would beg to differ.

A DHS report leaked to Breitbart shows that Homeland Security believes the kids are coming here because they’ve been told they can stay — Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA).

The report, identified as “De-Classified” and “Law Enforcement Sensitive,” reveals the fact that only 0.1 percent of the Central American minors illegally entering the U.S. having been deported in Fiscal Year 2013, down from two percent prior, plays a significant role in why the current border crisis is occurring. The DHS-ICE agency report admits the fact that 98 percent are allowed to stay is a significant draw for the minors to come into the United States. The agency acknowledges that conditions in Central America play a role in why the wave is occurring, but directly contradicts the assertion that such conditions are the only significant reason the crisis exists. The report directly contradicts any assertion U.S. government refusals to deport illegal immigrants is not a significant factor in why the crisis is occurring.

The report further reveals that Central American nations are doing little to curb the flow of illegal immigration to the U.S. and attributes the lack of efforts in the host nations to stop the flow to the nations wanting their nationals to send money back home from the United States. The report also indicates that family members from the host nations already residing in the U.S. is a major draw for the current crisis. This indicates that illegal aliens already within the U.S. are possibly drawing more to illegally migrate north.

The report states:

Migration pull factors include reunification with family members already in the United States and successful migration attempts; that is, most (98 percent) OTM UCs are issued a Notice to Appear and not immediately removed from the United States. Last year, only 1,700 UCs were repatriated to their home countries.” The report also clarifies the statement: HSI-Intel assesses with high confidence that reunification with family members already in the United States continues to be a pull factor for UCs from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.

The report also states:

No single factor causes OTM UC migration to the United States. Rather, several factors combine to cause this, including poor economies and violence in home countries, potential employment opportunities in the United States, family reunification, and success at not being immediately repatriated drive OTM UC migration to the United States. [Emphasis Added by Breitbart]

How much is violence to blame for the illegal human flood and how much is the prospect of being able to stay? It’s difficult to say. The CAP analysis suggests that countries that don’t have a lot violence don’t send their  kids north in great numbers. That very well may be, but reduced violence also means a more stable, prosperous country. Even poor kids may have more opportunities in less violence prone countries, which may be a factor in their staying home.

Regardless, anecdotal evidence suggests that the promise of not being returned is a powerful “pull” in sending these kids north. The fact that in 2013, only 0.1% of illegal children were sent home would suggest that the word has gotten out about our lax immigration laws. With a better than 99% chance of staying if they get here. it seems worth the effort to come.


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