StratFor sees trouble for the Gulf oil states, but not because of homegrown unrest a la Egypt and Libya. Rather:
The real reason STRATFOR sees the Persian Gulf’s Arab states as being threatened has less to do with spontaneous protests and more to do with foreign-instigated unrest — and this would-be instigator is Iran. Iran has struggled to increase its sway on the western shores of the Gulf since long before the mullahs rose to power in 1979, and in this new viral-protest age, Tehran sees an opportunity.
In recent days, the Iranians have encouraged unrest in the Persian Gulf state that has the highest proportion of Shia: Bahrain. Luckily for the energy markets, Bahrain is practically a non-player. The real game is in the energy heavyweights of Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In these states, we see three specific regions as being in potential danger because they are large sources of oil; they are immediately adjacent to Shiite population centers; and the oil-export routes pass through these to Shiite-populated ports.
Read the whole thing, but President Obama’s “weak horse” strategy for dealing with Iran seems to be paying the expected dividends.
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