Don’t Laugh, Don’t Smirk, Don’t Count Him Out: Ted Cruz Could Beat JD Vance in 2028

He’s nobody’s first choice. Probably because he comes across about as warm, charismatic, and charming as an 1850 algebra book.

In fact, the consensus on Capitol Hill is that Ted Cruz is the most hated man in D.C. President Donald Trump even joked about it when he floated his name for the Supreme Court: “[Cruz is] the only one I can think of that’s going to get 100 votes. All the Republicans will vote for him. All the Democrats will vote for him, ‘cause they want to get him the hell out of the Senate.”

The Ted Cruz hatefest has been well documented:

Business Insider: Here’s Why Everyone Hates Ted Cruz

The Independent: ‘You Either Hate Him or You Hate Him’: Why Ted Cruz Just Can’t Get It Right

New York Times: How Ted Cruz Became the Least Sympathetic Politician in America

PBS: Why Ted Cruz Is a Pariah Among Fellow Republican Senators

NPR: Ted Cruz and the Senate: Now We’ve Got Bad Blood

CNBC: Why Is Ted Cruz Disliked?

CBS News: Ted Cruz’s Colleagues Don’t Like Him. Do Voters?

New York Magazine: Why Everyone (in Congress) Hates Ted Cruz

CBS: Why Senate Republicans Hate Ted Cruz

New Republic: Everybody Hated Ted

Vice: Ted Cruz’s Biggest Challenge: To Know Him Is to Hate Him

Rolling Stone: A Compendium of People Who Hate Ted Cruz’s Guts

BBC: Meet Some of Ted Cruz’s Harshest Critics — Republicans

Democracy Docket: The Most Hated Man in the Senate

The anti-Cruz zingers are legendary: The late Sen. Lindsey Graham quipped, “If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you.” Ex-House Speaker John Boehner called him “Lucifer in the flesh,” before adding, “I have never worked with a more miserable son of a b***h in my life.” Former Sen. Al Franken wrote, “I like Ted Cruz more than most of my other colleagues like Ted Cruz. And I hate Ted Cruz.”

He’s become a social media punchline:

Reminds me of my favorite Cruz joke. “Why do people take an instant dislike to Ted Cruz?” It saves time! 🤣🤣🤣 https://t.co/27V3OZ17TA

— Gloria Campos (@GloriaCampos) September 1, 2026

"There are two kinds of people in DC. People who hate Ted Cruz and people who have never met him." https://t.co/hMoyLThbEJ

— Chron (@chron) September 5, 2025

But the paradox is that even though he’s nobody’s first choice, he’s an awful lot of Republicans’ second or third choice. Because, yes, in D.C., everyone might hate him (and perhaps for good reason) — but in the heartland, most MAGA voters and conservative respect him, appreciate him, and trust the genuineness of his convictions.

And if the 2028 GOP presidential nomination becomes an ideological contest between Ted Cruz and JD Vance, Ted Cruz could absolutely win.

Conventional wisdom is sleeping on Cruz’s chances. They think he’s too awkward, too unlikeable. They see starry-eyed Republicans drooling over Marco Rubio ’28. Or wondering if Ron DeSantis could hone his campaigning skills, emerge rested and ready, and regain his COVID-era popularity. And besides, JD Vance will be the heavy favorite anyway, right? 

Ted Cruz is an afterthought.

That’s a mistake. Here are three reasons why:

Vice President Vance is certainly aware of Cruz’s 2028 ambitions. When he was asked about it, Vance pulled the old PR trick of backhandedly “complimenting” an adversary by drawing extra attention to his weaknesses, telling reporters: “Clearly, Ted is a very authentic and likeable guy, and I’m sure he’ll do great.”

If Vance had complimented Cruz’s intellect — or lifelong dedication to the conservative cause — it would’ve meant something different. This was 100% deliberate: Vance is too damn smart to have chosen those “compliments” accidentally.

Which is a tell: JD Vance views Ted Cruz as a threat. 

(Or at least someone worthy of political chin music.)

Because, in 2028, there won’t be a “next” Donald Trump. Fuhgeddaboudit! Trump was a once-in-a-century anomaly — a glorious glitch in the spacetime continuum — who rewrote the political playbook. With an indomitable will to win, his mischievous twinkle-in-the-eye charm, and the sheer power of his personality, Trump said and did things that mortal politicians cannot.

Only Trump could’ve campaigned on Glenn Youngkin’s name sounding weirdly Chinese — or Ron DeSantis eating pudding with his fingers. (I promise you, in a million-zillion years, Rubio, Vance, and Cruz wouldn’t have even considered it.)

And more impressively, only Trump could’ve made the attacks work, because they were the perfect combination of funny, memorable, and sticky!

Trump’s personality lets him defy gravity. Part of his charm is that he’s self-aware enough to recognize the silliness of it all. He revels in the ridiculousness of it.

It’s also why Cruz and Vance can’t pull it off: We know how serious they are. For them, politics isn’t entertainment; it’s life and death.

(Only more so.)

If Cruz or Vance tried to attack Youngkin for being Chinese or DeSantis for his pudding-fingers, they’d sound like mental patients. It simply wouldn’t work.

Because, in their heart of hearts, both Cruz and Vance are ideologues. They’re not natural leaders (or naturally funny); they’re natural thinkers.

Even when it’s not politically helpful, neither man can resist the urge to debate big, impressive ideas.

JD Vance’s advantage is that he’s the sitting vice president. As long as the president’s popularity among Republicans is a sky-high 80% — and a whopping 92% among MAGA voters — proximity to the president is a yuuuuge political asset. The closer you are, the better.

Then, if Trump decides to put his thumb on the scale (which he probably will), Vance’s advantage grows. (Bigly.) When it comes to GOP kingmakers, the president is in a class by himself.

It gives JD Vance the inside track.

Vance’s disadvantage, however, is that his big, impressive ideas are less popular within the Republican Party than Cruz’s big, impressive ideas. From lambasting Israel (foreign policy) to criticizing Milton Friedman (economic policy) to spitballing about UFOs/demons (theology), Vance is in his own orbit; Cruz is closer to conventional Republican positions.

And if Trump’s personality continues to overshadow everyone else’s, then the deciding factor in 2028 won’t be personal dynamism — it’ll be whose ideas are more popular.

Advantage: Cruz.

Plus, there’s the Tucker Carlson factor. JD Vance has gone on the record repeatedly defending his friendship with the antisemitic podcaster. He did it again last week:

🚨VP Vance addresses Tucker Carlson's comments on the Trump administration and Abdul El-Sayed:

"I'm not avoiding addressing anything. Everybody knows that Tucker Carlson and I are friends, and I think it's very obvious that Tucker has said somethings that I disagree with. He's… pic.twitter.com/gkXRbZQQk5

— Daily Wire (@realDailyWire) September 3, 2026

Meanwhile, Cruz is doing the opposite:

Ted Cruz describes the threat Tucker Carlson is posing to the Republican Party, saying he is “the single most dangerous demagogue in America.”

Tucker has decided to go to a very dark place and has almost become indistinguishable from Ilhan Omar when you look at the fact that… pic.twitter.com/1Xc6yJaXTJ

— Justin (@JustinUSA) September 2, 2026

If Cruz can solidify older evangelicals, ideological conservatives, and the pro-Israel Republican majority, his presidential run could take him all the way to the White House. In many ways, he’s the candidate most ideally positioned to attract those voters.

And if Tucker Carlson continues to bash Jews, bash Trump, praise Abdul El-Sayed, and piss off Republicans for another two years, Vance’s ties to Carlson will be even more problematic. It’ll be an albatross around Vance’s neck.

Carlson’s popularity is already underwater, both nationally and within the GOP. More likely than not, it’ll get worse by 2028, because Carlson’s business model is predicated on constantly saying controversial, outrageous, offensive things. 

By failing to separate himself from his “good friend,” Vance has created a Hasan Piker problem for himself. It’s a self-inflicted wound, but a wound nonetheless.

And once again, Cruz has perfectly positioned himself as the best candidate to capitalize on the veep’s missteps.

Because the sad truth is that neither Vance nor Cruz can run on charisma, personality, magnetism, or likeability. It’s just not who they are. To quote a future president, they might be “likeable enough,” but it’s not their fundamental selling point.

They’re Ivy League eggheads. Political philosophers. Thinkers and debaters. They live in the land of theoreticals.

In other words, they’re “idea guys.” 

Both out of necessity and intellectual compulsion, they can’t resist the siren’s song of an ideological debate. After all, they have opinions on everything — and an obsession with oversharing. 

And always being right. Always being clever. Always having the last word.

But both men can’t be the smartest one in the room. 

Vance and Cruz are mirror images of each other. Their strengths and weaknesses are so flippin’ similar, it’s kind of eerie.

Where they differ is in their ideas — the same ideas they can’t shut up about.

Which means, a battle of big ideas is inevitable. It’s what both men want, crave, and can’t live without.

Advantage: Cruz.

There’s an excellent chance that Rubio keeps his word and lingers on the sidelines, Trump’s Republican Party popularity stays in the stratosphere, and Vance runs the table in 2028 as the president’s heir apparent. That’s still a high-probability outcome.

But if Vance fails to sweep the early states, he’ll have a real fight on his hands — and Sen. Cruz just might walk away with the nomination. He might not be Republicans’ first choice — but if Vance and Carlson are still connected at the hip in 2028, he just might be the next best option.

Don’t laugh: He’s stronger than you think.

One Last Thing: 2026 will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the future of our country teeters in the balance.

Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Blue wave or red wall, one way or another the 2026 midterms will transform our country.

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