Early Voting Results: 80 Million Votes Already Cast. What Do They Tell Us?

Nearly 80 million early votes have now been cast in the 2024 presidential election. And it’s extremely close: Registered Democrats comprised 41% of mail-in (or in-person early voting), 39% were registered Republicans, and 20% were independent.

That’s an extremely narrow Democratic edge and one with an important caveat: We don’t know if these Republicans or Democrats voted straight ticket. If Trump is more popular with Republicans than Kamala Harris is with Democrats, he could actually hold a slight edge right now. And without a sizable pre-Election Day advantage, the Democrats are toast.

(However, if you still have faith in the accuracy of media polls, their latest data has Republicans more likely to break for Harris than the other way around. Not a promising omen at all if you believe them.)

But in sheer numbers, 48% of American adults now identify as Republican (or GOP-leaning), and just 45% for Democrats. In fact, Democratic party identification is now at an all-time low. There’s a smaller universe of Democrats.

That’s critical because Democrats’ voting patterns differ from Republicans: In 2020, 58% of Biden supporters voted via mail-in ballots, compared to just 32% of Republicans. (That year, Trump captured 46.8% of the vote, 4.5% behind Biden — much closer than the 26-point mail-in gap.)

What does this ultimately mean?

1. If voting patterns stay constant, it’s increasingly unlikely that the Democrats will have enough of a mail-in “buffer” to offset the GOP’s day-of advantage. They needed a bigger lead, and they simply didn’t get it.
2. Unless, of course, Republicans haven’t actually added enough new voters, and are simply shifting day-of voters to the early-voting category. In that case, the tightening of the early ballots would be deceiving. (And heartbreaking for conservatives.)

Not to get all Rumsfeldian, but among the biggest, most unpredictable “known unknowns” are whether or not the 2020 COVID-era voting patterns were an anomalous one-off or a harbinger of a larger socio-political change. In 2020, voter turnout increased by 7%, and the increased turnout almost certainly hurt Trump. 

But are these 7% new voters gonna stick around in 2024?

Four years ago, COVID restrictions dramatically altered the political calculus, making it far easier for Trump-haters (who were struggling through the pandemic and clamoring for change) to voice their displeasure. Additionally, Biden was probably the most famous Democrat in the country not named Hillary or Barack: He had a built-in, 40-plus year reservoir of support from the black community (and other liberal groups), which viewed him as an extension of the Obama administration.

Today, Kamala Harris is perceived as an extension of the Biden administration — not the Obama administration. That won’t garner the same level of loyalty or support.

The 2024 turnout rate will be significantly lower than in 2020. Sixty-four percent of Americans voted in 2020, but only 54% have (or are planning to) vote in 2024. In a close election, if the 10% drop hurts Harris more than Trump — which is a reasonable assumption — Team MAGA could be in a comfortable lead.

So what’s the bottom line?

There’s ample reason to believe that Trump is performing far better than the latest polls are suggesting. Based on what we know, it seems more likely than not that Trump will win. But ultimately, it’ll come down to each team’s ground game — and which socio-political model 2024 follows.

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