The unexpected retirement of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin last month added fuel to the hopes that Republicans can reclaim the U.S. Senate in 2024.
It should be a slam dunk with a favorable Senate map and a deeply unpopular Democrat president. Of the 34 regularly scheduled elections in 2024, Democrats are defending twice as many seats as Republicans — 20 to 11. That gives Republicans twice as many potential pickups. There will also be three seats up that are currently held by independents who caucus with Democrats. So count those as Democrats, meaning three more seats they need to defend.
Right now, Democrats hold a 51-49 majority. Manchin is not running again because West Virginia has become one of the reddest states in the union, going for Trump over Biden by 39 points. That seat will flip with almost any Republican, but with popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice leading the primary, the Democrats will be lucky to find a sacrificial lamb. The Cook Political Report has put it as “solid Republican” with Manchin stepping down.
Of the 11 Senate seats that Republicans are defending this year, Cook has nine of them as “solid Republican” and two, Texas and Florida, as “likely Republican.” That is an unusually strong defensive position, and given the pickup of West Virginia, which ties the Senate, Republicans can train most of their funding and resources on some of the vulnerable 23 Democrats. And here, the field is ripe for harvest.
Fifteen of the Senate seats are solid or likely for Democrats. Four states — Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — only “lean” Democrat. While three states — Arizona, Montana, and Ohio — are considered “toss-ups.”
Before we take a peek in some detail at these states, a caveat: Several of these have Democrat secretaries of state and have shown no inclination to back away from their horrific, illegal, unconstitutional 2020 election changes. And we have no idea what Covid-like schemes are being hatched to further the disruption of legitimate democracy. Not a conspiracy. We all saw 2020.
With that said, we take a look at these states beyond the polling (everyone remembers the deep disappointment of 2022 from errant polls). Here are the three toss-up states.
Arizona: Incumbent Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is seeking reelection, but as an independent, which means this will likely be a three-way race. That makes for complicated dynamics. Democrats could help themselves by trying to keep any Democrat out of the race, and take another independent who will caucus with them. Republicans could help Democrats by nominating Kari Lake, who has alienated everyone but the MAGA base at this point, including the large number of moderate Republicans across the state, to give her sky high net unfavorables in Arizona polling. However, even then it is complicated. While Sinema takes far more Republican voters in a general election if Lake is the nominee rather than another Republican in the primary, Lake takes more independent voters. The ace up the sleeve of Republicans in all these races is bumbling Joe Biden dragging down Democrats everywhere.
Montana: Trump won the state by 17 points. Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester is clearly vulnerable and is running against a likable and well-funded Navy Seal challenger, Tim Sheehy, whose high-profile overseas deployments plays powerfully in Montana. Ironically and beneficially, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee is the other senator from Montana, Steve Daines. He has a wealth of knowledge on how to win Montana.
Ohio: Like fellow former swing state Florida, Ohio has become solidly red in recent election cycles. Trump won in 2016 and 2020. Republican Mike DeWine won the governorship in 2020 and Republican J.D. Vance won the Senate seat. While much has been made of Ohioans resoundingly voting to expand abortion access in the state, that is likely an outlier as pro-lifers were disorganized and financially crushed by pro-abortionists. Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown is an 18-year incumbent, but he faces all the headwinds of an increasingly red state and increasingly unpopular head of his ticket.
And here are the four states only leaning Democrat:
Michigan: Republicans seem to play Ahab to Michigan’s Moby Dick. The state always seems in reach, but somehow always falls away, often not even close. But it is once again tempting the Ahabians to venture forth into the deep. Longtime incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is not seeking reelection, and polls are now showing Trump well ahead of Biden in a match-up. It’s a full Republican field with some strong candidates offering hope. Or it is Moby Dick.
Nevada The four most recent polls in Nevada show Trump over Biden between 4 points and 11 points. In the aggravating 2022 midterms, Nevada had the closest Senate race in the country when Democratic Catherine Cortez Masto beat Republican Adam Laxalt by less than 8,000 votes. More than $200 million was spent in that race. So the ground is fertile in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen has voted with President Biden 93 percent of the time, which may not play well in a purple swing state. There are eight Republicans in the race, but Sam Brown is easily the early favorite. Brown is a West Point grad and Afghan War veteran who earned a Purple Heart.
Pennsylvania: Republican David McCormick, who nearly defeated well-known celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz in last year’s Pennsylvania Senate primary to replace Pat Toomey, is now challenging the Democrat incumbent Bob Casey Jr., who’s not particularly popular. McCormick has name recognition and is already well-funded with a campaign infrastructure and a clear field in the Republican primary. Pennsylvania has the corrupt blue Philadelphia machine to deal with, but this is a possible pickup.
Wisconsin: Always a state sending mixed signals. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson surprised a lot of people by winning reelection in 2022 against a well-funded challenger in an election cycle that turned Democrat. Incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin is benefitting from the lack of a major Republican entering the race. The three qualified right now are largely political unknowns. With a strong Republican, Wisconsin would probably be a toss-up. But it is still a possible pickup if a strong candidate emerges with funding.
Of course Republicans could totally mess this up. There is precedent. But to be fair, when fighting the entirety of corporate media, all of social media except X, the corrupt apparatus in many states, pop culture knuckleheads such as Taylor Swift with knucklehead lemming followers, less money than Democrats and the rest of the movers of culture and information, Republicans need to be nearly perfect to ever win.
Related: Dumb and Drunker — Team Biden Wants Hillary's Help
Final caveat: The unknown effect of Trump winning the nomination and being in prison (a realistic possibility) on down-ballot races. And we won’t know that until we know that.
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