Yes, it’s very early. Yes, the political landscape will have changed in unpredictable ways by 2028. Nevertheless, the Democrat presidential hopeful who emerges from the pack now will likely still be on the scene when the next presidential campaign season rolls around and can do a great deal between now and then to establish his or her or xis position as the front-runner. Yes, Kamala Harris has a huge lead in the polls now, but that’s mostly just because she has greater name recognition than the other hopefuls; no one is really excited about her or thinks she’s going to be the great candidate she wasn’t in 2024. Now the pollster Nate Silver has named the person whom he thinks will be the Dems’ 2028 candidate, and it isn’t Kamala Harris.
Fox News reported Thursday that Silver and Galen Druke, who made podcasts for FiveThirtyEight for nearly a decade, both agreed on who the Dems’ likeliest 2028 contender is. They were picking candidates as if they were conducting a sports draft, and Druke said: "My first pick of the first-round draft is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.”
Silver was enraged, but only because he agreed with Druke and had wanted to pick AOC first. "F--- you!” he responded winningly. “That was going to be my f---ing first pick!” Man, these guys are charmers. “We both are on the AOC bus." To be sure, Silver also “said his first pick likely had at best a "20% chance" to be the nominee, indicating it was far from a confident prediction. Also, Nate Silver has not exactly amassed a sterling reputation as a master prognosticator. FiveThirtyEight picked Hillary Clinton to win in 2016, but of course, so did the rest of the world. Silver also, however, thought Kamala Harris was going to eke out a win over Trump in 2024.
Clearly, Silver’s far-left biases have clouded his ability to read the signs of the times; nevertheless, he and Druke were ready with all sorts of good reasons why people shouldn’t dismiss their contention that ex-bartender AOC has the best chance among all the Democrat comrades of walking into the Oval Office as the nation’s First Socialist on Jan. 20, 2029.
Druke asserted that there are "a lot of points in her favor at this very moment," including the fact that she has “the highest net favorability of any Democrats asked about in a recent Yale survey.” Druke concluded: "So that means that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party and there’s a lot of people who could potentially get on board with her. But I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support."
Yes. The socialist internationalists love her, and there are even more of those in the Democrat party than there are guys running around in dresses and insisting on using the women’s bathroom. The Daily Caller notes that the angry old socialist and the shrill young socialist, Bernie and AOC, “have drawn large crowds and plenty of press attention during their ‘Fight Oligarchy’ tour in recent weeks.”
Druke added another point in her favor: "Like, the media is kind of obsessed with her, and they’re going to follow her every move, which means she will be able to keep the attention on her throughout the primary process.” (Like, yeah, dude, but really, what is like the media being obsessed with her?)
Silver was totally on board with this analysis. "I agree with everything," he announced. "She was going to be my first pick, and I can’t conceal that now, right? Because of some of the polling, because she has this kind of progressive lane — probably not to herself, because she is younger and media savvy."
That could end up being her downfall. The nation is moving away from the far-left madness that has dominated the culture for so long. AOC could find herself a relic of a bygone age at the tender age of 39, which is how old she will be when the election of 2028 rolls around. Silver, however, didn’t see this happening: "I mean, look, in polls, if she were to run — try to primary Chuck Schumer, she is now ahead in those polls and New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate lot."
Related: ‘Surprising’ Results in Poll of Voter Attitudes Toward Kamala Running for California Governor
Yeah, if there is any word that comes to mind when I think of Democrats in New York, it’s “moderate.” Just look at Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kathy Hochul, and AOC herself — if New York Democrats got any more “moderate,” they’d elect Uncle Joe Stalin.
Silver did add a caveat: "She’s very young. I don’t know that she’s sure to run. And I also think you’re going to have a lot of concerns about 'electability.'" Yes, you do. But one of the scariest things about AOC is that she may pass up 2028 and decide 2032 is her year. Or 2036. She could still be a national figure in 2068, when she will be 79 years old, a good age to make a presidential run these days.
Can the nation stand forty-plus years of AOC as a national political figure? Would it survive? Not if she gets elected president and realizes her socialist vision. Silver and Druke were unwittingly envisioning a national nightmare.
