As PJ Media author Tim O'Brien suggests, "It's Time to Start Ignoring the Polls." In a recent article, I suggested that the biggest reason not to trust the polls is that Americans are refusing to talk to pollsters in shocking numbers. That means smaller sample sizes and far less accurate polls.
Pollsters can "weight" their polls any which way they want, but the bottom line is, compared to even just 20 years ago, the polls leave much to be desired as far as accuracy goes.
So how can we tell who might be winning? "The only poll that matters is the one on election day" is a political truism. But what if one party sees enormous turnout in the primaries? That kind of poll is a lot harder to dismiss. If people are enthused enough to make the effort to vote, perhaps it's worth paying attention.
Related: It's Time to Start Ignoring the Polls
History is a guide here.
In 2018, "Furious Democratic voters emerged during that campaign’s primary season and maintained their energy into November," the New York Times observes. "The party flipped 42 House seats, taking the majority."
I don't know how "furious" they were. The Times did its part in making sure voters were enraged at Donald Trump by framing everything he did in hysterical, apocalyptic terms. But furious or not, Democrats were energized and went to the polls in larger numbers than Republicans.
Is history preparing to repeat itself? Democratic turnout in 2026 primaries has been awesome.
The New York Times:
About 150,000 more people voted in the Democratic primary between James Talarico, the victor, and Representative Jasmine Crockett than in the Republican contest between Senator John Cornyn and the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton, who would go on to win in a runoff.
That’s a major change from four years ago, when there were 900,000 more votes in the state’s Republican primaries for state offices than in its Democratic contests. Even in 2018, during the last Democratic wave election, 500,000 more people voted in the Republican Senate primary than in the Democratic one. That year, the last midterm election with Mr. Trump in office, Democrats flipped seats across Texas as Beto O’Rourke came the closest any Democrat had gotten in decades to winning a Senate race in the state.
Comparing 2022 and 2026, "Twenty-two states held contested primary elections in both parties for governor or Senate," The Times notes. "Democratic turnout increased in three-quarters of those states this year over four years ago, while dropping in two-thirds of those states for Republicans."
Related: Midterm Polls Come With an Asterisk
The Times omits one key to the huge increase in Democratic turnout: the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). DSA candidates were on the ballot in four states for governor, senator, and U.S. House. There was a 20% increase in turnout in Wisconsin, where three candidates ran: Francesca Hong (State Representative who ran in the Democratic primary for governor), Emily Berge (District 3), and Katrina deVille (District 8).
The difference between 2022 and 2026 is even larger in Illinois. In 2022, Democratic primary ballots totaled 883,000. In 2026, 1,118,000 Democrats cast primary ballots. That's a 27% increase from 2022.
Another key factor in turnout is the massive amount of cash both parties are spending. If the money has done nothing else, it's goosed interest in the races, as press coverage has inundated voters.
As always, local issues play a big role in getting people to the polls, and this last summer, Democratic Party anger over data centers drove people to vote (as Democratic strategists knew it would). Other issues that angered some voters were tariffs and the war in Iran. I would say that both of those issues had far less impact on turnout.
Most of the "enthusiasm" the Times measured came from younger voters, who don't vote in large numbers in midterm elections. The key to a Democratic "wave" is whether they can get low-propensity, or infrequent voters to the polls. These voters drove GOP victories in the 2022 midterms and may be key to Republicans salvaging the elections in 2026.
