Every few years, Democrats get excited about a candidate emerging in Texas who will guide them out of the wilderness and bring them to the promised land of a Senate victory.
Texas Democrats have been shut out of the U.S. Senate since 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen won reelection. In 2018, "the next JFK" appeared with a guitar, a toothy smile, and the devil's own charm. The girls swooned over Beto O'Rourke as if he were a rock star (and he wanted to be one).
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) took one look at the next JFK and proceeded to defeat him, despite the media heaping loads of adoring free coverage on O'Rourke. Beto also ran for president in 2020, dropping out a year before the election when Democrats' tastes changed. He tried for governor in 2022 and got slaughtered by the current governor, Greg Abbott.
This year's flavor is a former seminary student (See? Democrats DO believe in God!), Rep. James Talarico. On the campaign trail, Father James raised a few eyebrows when he proclaimed, "God is non-binary."
Yeah. That'll go over big in Texas.
Polls have Talarico either tied with or narrowly ahead of Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton. That, Paxton's past scandals that resulted in his impeachment by the Republican House, and a securities scandal a decade ago appear to be weighing on his campaign.
This has all led to the closely watched Cook Political Report moving the Texas Senate race from "lean Republican" to "toss-up."
Naturally, Democrats are ecstatic. For Paxton, it's a bitter reminder that the establishment has yet to get behind his campaign after his hard-fought primary, where he eliminated four-term establishment favorite Sen. John Cornyn.
To make matters worse, the race to replace the retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa has turned south for Republicans despite Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) being a strong recruit and fundraiser. State Rep. Josh Turek (D) is outraising Hinson, and the political winds in Iowa, with tariffs, the high cost of diesel fuel, and inflation biting hard, are now blowing away from Republicans. Cook has moved the Iowa Senate race from "lean GOP" to "toss-up."
“With these ratings shifts, we see the overall battle for the Senate as a toss-up, but one in which Republicans may still hold the slimmest of advantages,” Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote.
Taylor noted that in addition to Paxton’s negatives, there’s also an open question of which Republican groups will invest in the Texas Senate race as Senate Republicans spent a hefty amount of money to support Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).
Additionally, the Cook Political Report editor added that having a libertarian on the ballot could help Talarico. Some Republicans may ultimately be unwilling to vote for the Texas attorney general but may also be repelled by the idea of casting a ballot for the Democratic state lawmaker, giving them the option to vote for a third candidate, which would inevitably help Democrats.
“It’s important to note that Talarico also has liabilities that Republicans can — and will — exploit, including his comments that ‘God is non-binary’ and that there are multiple genders,” Taylor wrote.
Before Democrats start popping champagne corks, there are a few items they need to keep in mind going forward. For example, Paxton is in better shape than Cruz was in 2018, when O'Rourke led by five points in some polls. And Texas Democrats always overperform in polls, but on Election Day, voters return to reality and elect a Republican.
It's been 32 years since a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas. Talarico is going to have to show a lot more grit and an instinct for the jugular to convince me he has a realistic shot at beating Paxton, despite the Republican's perceived weaknesses.
Lucy is about to pull the football away before Charlie Brown can kick it, and Texas Democrats still haven't learned their lesson.
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