Transgender Identity Numbers in Free Fall Among American Students: Study

A new survey of published polling data by Eric Kaufmann, a professor of politics at the University of Buckingham in the United Kingdom and an adjunct fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute, shows a nearly 50% drop in the number of college students who identify as transgender. Kaufmann believes the data shows the gender identity trend is going "out of fashion."

The surveys include polls from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) poll, which samples more than 50,000 students each year, and the Higher Education Research Institute’s (HERI) annual freshman survey.

"The annual Andover Phillips Academy survey showed 9.2% of students identified as neither male nor female in 2023, a figure that plummeted to 3% in 2025," according to a report in the Washington Times.

At Brown University, 5% of students said they were nonbinary in 2023, but just 2.6% did so two years later.

1/ NEW: trans identification is in free fall among the young

(h/t @FIRE data in particular) pic.twitter.com/i0Z1BNcWG8
— Eric Kaufmann (@epkaufm) October 14, 2025

Matt Walsh has declared that transgenderism is over.

Transgenderism is effectively over. We destroyed it. Clearest and most decisive cultural win that conservatives have ever achieved. https://t.co/ftZGuuqtRN
— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) October 14, 2025

"Freshmen and sophomores are also less likely to identify as transgender or queer than upperclassmen, 'a sign that fashions are changing,'" according to an article penned by Kaufmann in UnHerd.

I'll point out the obvious: This is one survey of polling data. While the data is from several “high-quality youth survey sources,” it's still a limited snapshot since it mostly targets university students.

Also, Professor Kaufmann only gave respondents three choices for gender identity: male, female, and "non-binary." There was no specific choice for transgender identity.

When asked by journalist Benjamin Ryan what the data was supposed to signify, Kaufmann responded, “It’s nonbinary, but I believe a trans person would tick that box.”

Sorry, but that's a wild, unproven assumption. So why highlight this flawed study at all?

More research will be needed, but I don't believe there's much doubt that younger people's attitudes toward conventional wisdom is blowing up. This is thanks to the government's overreaction to the COVID-19 pandemic and all the fallout from that event, including massive changes to our work habits, playtime, education, and the social interactions that used to be a defining characteristic of adolescence and young adulthood.

We work, play, live, and love differently than before the pandemic. It is a genuine "hinge of history" where the world on the other side of the door is different than the world we left behind. It's impossible to peer around the corner and guess what this may mean for humanity going forward. All we know is that it will be a lot different than it was.

"A report issued by the Williams Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles, delved into Centers for Disease Control and Prevention health surveys between 2017 and 2020" and found "1.4 percent of youth age 13 to 17 and 1.3 percent of those age 18 to 24 are transgender, while about 0.5 percent of all adults are transgender. These numbers reflect a significant increase over the last report in 2017," according to an article in Harford Healthcare Institute for Living.

The Williams Institute report from 2022 found:

Younger teenagers make up 7.6 percent of the total U.S. population, but 18 percent of its transgender population.
Those ages 18 to 24 make up 11 percent of the total population and 24 percent of the transgender population.
Only 47 percent of transgender people are age 25 to 64.

Are those numbers still valid? Again, Kaufmann's survey proves little in the way of "facts." But as a harbinger of future attitudes? Your guess is as good as mine.

Kaufmann's survey reflects what I believe to be a "second thoughts" movement among the youth. It's not that today's youth are more or less inclined to identify as transgender or non-binary. They are re-examining basic assumptions in light of their experience. That not only includes gender but also politics, religion, and all the other touchstones of our civilization.

My parents' generation took one look at the youth of my time and predicted the downfall of civilization. So it was with Gen X, Y, Z, and everything after. Kaufmann's work proves once again that the kids will be alright.

The Schumer Shutdown drags on, as Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats keep the government shut down over healthcare for illegals. They own this.

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