There have been three wars and many conflicts and standoffs between India and Pakistan since the partition of 1947. Most of them have centered around the disputed Kashmir region. Both sides claim the province, and both sides have based terrorist groups in the disputed area.
On April 22, terrorists slaughtered 26 people, mostly tourists, in the mountainous town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. India says it has proof that Pakistan was behind the attack. Pakistan denies it, and the two sides have been carrying out a series of reciprocal diplomatic aggressions. First, Pakistan and then India closed their airspace to commercial flights from each other's countries, while India canceled visas from Pakistan and suspended a water-sharing treaty.
Pakistan shot down an Indian surveillance drone this week while India said it had carried out test missile strikes to “revalidate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems and crew for long-range precision offensive strike.”
The two nuclear states were not only rattling sabers but also accused the other of preparing for war. While India has a large advantage in most conventional military areas, that only makes the situation more dangerous. In an all-out war between the two nations, Pakistan would quickly be faced with the choice of losing or going nuclear.
No one is sure that the Pakistani Muslims would keep their nukes locked up if Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi carries out his fondest wish and tries to take out the many terrorist bases in Kashmir, since many of the terrorists are located in Pakistani-controlled areas of Kashmir.
At the very least, an attack on Pakistani-controlled soil would precipitate a similar conflict that arose in 2019 after a suicide car bomb in Kashmir killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers. Modi ordered fighters to bomb Pakistani positions while Pakistan downed an Indian fighter jet.
Many analysts see Kashmir as the primary nuclear flashpoint in the world today. The reason is that India and Pakistan are unstable countries with volatile populations and strong militaries. The Pakistani military essentially controls the country's foreign policy, while India's traditional love for its military and its ties to the people give the army a privileged position in the government.
In 2019, the Trump administration played a decisive role in de-escalating the conflict. That may not happen today. Trump has yet to name ambassadors to either nation, and several high-level State Department officials who deal with the region have yet to be named. Most significantly, there were no American troops in Afghanistan that acted as a steadying force in 2019.
This time, Modi may talk himself into a nuclear war.
Despite the government’s repeated claims that Indian actions in recent years had established deterrence, militant violence has continued, and the security situation in Kashmir remains fraught. The 2019 strikes did not cow Pakistan or separatist militants; the cycle of attack and reprisal persists, with each incident raising the stakes for escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
In a memoir published in 2023, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed that India and Pakistan came perilously close to a nuclear exchange in February 2019 after India’s airstrikes inside Pakistan, with both sides reportedly preparing for escalation until urgent U.S. intervention helped defuse the crisis. During his election rallies that spring, Modi repeatedly invoked nuclear themes, boasting that India had “called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff” and suggesting that India’s own nuclear arsenal was not just “kept for Diwali,” the Hindu festival in which people set off fireworks. He used such nuclear saber rattling to demonstrate his government’s toughness.
Fortunately, Modi is not facing the voters this year, so he can afford to dispense with the nuclear threats. But with the two nations on high alert, the chances of an accidental launch are always high.
India will no doubt retaliate for the April 22 terror attack in some way. Hopefully, it will be a measured response. Pakistan would then be expected to respond to India's response. If it ends there, we can consider ourselves lucky.
If not, anything can happen.
