In a last-ditch effort to change their fortunes before Donald Trump takes office in two weeks, Ukraine has launched another surprise offensive in the Kursk region. Ukraine is looking to regain the initiative and improve its negotiating position prior to the inauguration.
The offensive is worrying Russian President Vladimir Putin. He's been trying to reduce the Kursk salient since Ukraine's last surprise attack in August caught Russian forces flat-footed and seized about 650 square miles of Russian territory. A large number of North Korean conscripts have been thrown into the battle without regard to the cost, reportedly suffering 25% casualties in reducing the salient by about half.
Now, Putin has this new worry. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been trying to get Putin to weaken his main offensive in the East, where Ukraine's forces are being slowly ground to powder. Russia is losing a larger number of troops as well. The August Kursk offensive by Kyiv kept critical Ukrainian reinforcements from reaching the Eastern front, relieving pressure on his beleaguered forces.
The Kursk attacks also kept Putin from transferring troops to the East. The North Koreans apparently die pretty well but aren't much use in a slugging match. This is now a cause for concern for Putin, who sent one of his toughest and most reliable generals to the Kursk sector just a few hours after the Ukrainian counteroffensive began. General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, promoted in December 2024 by Putin and trusted to run the border defenses and Africa mercenary projects, shows Putin is concerned that Ukraine's gambit to improve their negotiating position may work.
Putin wants Ukraine off Russian soil before negotiations begin. Any gains by Ukraine now will only weaken Russia's position when the peace talks start, probably not too long after Trump's inauguration.
As for the battle itself, progress, or lack of progress, is hard to discern from this distance.
Andrii Kovalenko, a senior Ukrainian government official focused on Russian disinformation operations, issued a statement referring to the Kursk region, saying that “the Russians are very worried because they were attacked on several fronts and it was a surprise for them.”
Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the area who were reached by phone declined to discuss ongoing operations beyond saying that Ukraine was on the offensive in parts of the Kursk region and that fierce fighting was raging there.
It was not possible to verify the claims by either side independently, and the scope of the Ukrainian assaults remained unclear.
In the East, Russia is winning a very costly battle in Donetsk, grinding down resistance outside of the key crossroads town of Kurakhove in the southern Donbas region, and has the larger city of Pokrovsk to the north nearly surrounded. Pokrovsk is a vital logistics and transportation hub for Ukrainian forces in the region, and the Russians are close to being able to cut it off. If they capture it, another large slice of Ukrainian territory will be in Russian hands.
“The situation in the Kursk region seems to be causing significant concern among the Russians, as they were unexpectedly attacked on several fronts.”
The new Kursk offensive comes as Ukraine positions itself for the likelihood of Trump pushing for a peace deal with Moscow, which has raised fears Kyiv could be pressured into unfavorable compromises.
And while many Ukrainians want the war, now in its third year, to end, there are concerns that a truce could allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to regroup and launch further attacks when he deems it advantageous.
If truce negotiations are to take place, Ukraine wants to do so from a position of strength, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has remained dogged in his rhetoric.
Zelensky has been his own worst enemy concerning his rhetoric. For more than two years, he kept insisting that Ukraine wouldn't quit until "every inch" of territory taken by Russia was won back. He slightly altered his rhetoric last summer after it became clear that even with the massive assistance of the U.S. and the West, Ukraine would be lucky to hold on to what they have.
Now, it's a game of expectations and illusion. If Ukraine does better than expected in this offensive, it can create the illusion of strength and improve its negotiating position.
That's all Zelenskyy has left.
