For U.S. policymakers, the Islamic Republic of Iran has always been something of a Chinese finger puzzle. Delusionally thinking that beginning a relationship with the "moderates" in Iran would solve the puzzle and bring the mullahs back into the fold of civilized nations, U.S. policymakers instead find themselves trapped by their own naivete.
The Iranian "moderates" are an illusion. The security state is all-powerful and doesn't give a damn about who's playing at running the country. It's been that way since 1980 and will continue that way until someone lines them all up against a wall and shoots them.
Whether out of arrogance, stupidity, or a refusal to bow to reality, officials in the Obama administration actually believed that they could change Iran by engaging "moderates" in an ever-more feckless dialog. They dangled billions of dollars in cash and gold in front of the mullahs who thanked the Americans for their generosity and then continued to ignore the precepts of civilized behavior.
Many of those same officials, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who was an aide to Obama Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, ended up in the Biden administration. And Biden, infused with the glorious vision of a peaceful, friendly Iran planted by his old boss Obama, decided to continue his dialog with "moderates."
Sullivan bought into the fairy tale that Iranian "hardliners" and "moderates" were at war with one another and that we could influence the outcome by showing Tehran how meaningful engagement could lead to an enriching relationship.
They actually believed that encouraging and supporting the "moderates" would be a game changer in the Middle East.
Michael Rubin, a Middle Eastern Scholar at the American Enterprise, Institute throws the necessary cold water on those silly assumptions.
At the root of this theory were two false assumptions. The first was that the difference between Iranian reformers and hardliners was one of policy rather than tactics. For the past two years, I have attended roundtables with the Iranian president at the United Nations. Hardline President Ebrahim Raisi and his reformist successor Masoud Pezeshkian hit the same points in their discussions; their difference was one of style rather than substance, with Pezeshkian more cleverly packaging his remarks for a Western audience. Likewise, during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement protests, not a single Iranian reformist resigned for a simple reason: They wholly support Iran’s theocratic regime. Essentially, Sullivan fell for a game of good cop, bad cop.
Sullivan’s second false belief was that the Iranian electorate matters. In reality, polls suggest the hardline-reformist dichotomy reflects only about a quarter of the population; the other 75 percent reject the Islamic Republic. The Iranian people live under the regime’s repression; they are not as naïve as many Americans about the enemy they face because they encounter its petty humiliations every day. The Iranian electorate cannot meaningfully change policy because the policies to which Iranians most object are hardwired into the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exists to prevent meaningful debate or protest.
"Iranian reformists often treat diplomacy as an asymmetric warfare strategy to tie their opponents’ hands while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seeks to advance Iran’s own military capabilities," writes Rubin. It has been like that since the Iranian hostage crisis 45 years ago.
One of the leadership strategies that has endured since the founding of the Islamic Republic has been to encourage factionalization among the leadership class. By keeping the power centers divided, the Revolutionary Guards and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can better control the government, making sure no coalition of forces can gather and challenge them.
As Rubin points out, executions rose in the time of reformers. And Biden's coddling of the moderates only leads to more executions.
The Biden team may want to encourage the Islamic Republic’s reformers, not aware that the Revolutionary Guards exists to prevent muddle-through reform from succeeding. Actions have consequences, however. By coddling reformers, President Joe Biden and aides like Sullivan not only may give space for Iran to achieve nuclear breakout, but also may be condemning even greater numbers of Iranians to the gallows.
The modern left-wing worldview leaves no room for doubt about a potential adversary's motives. They are "the other" and need to be respected just like all other "underserved communities."
In their eyes, Iran is innocent, at least until they blow us up.
