Have you heard? The Democrats are EXCITED again! They're ENTHUSIASTIC about Vice President Kamala Harris running for president. They're EXUBERANT about their candidate.
When the new Reuters poll dropped showing Harris beating Donald Trump 44-42%, many Democrats nearly swooned. Harris is the answer to Democrat's prayers (if any of them pray anymore).
I hate to throw cold water on the Democrats' premature victory celebration, but there's a race that still needs to be run. And Harris is still behind Donald Trump in swing states that the Democratic Party keeps saying she absolutely, positively has to win in order to capture the presidency.
The Emerson College swing state poll came out today, and despite all the enthusiasm, excitement, and exuberance, Donald Trump still leads or is tied in all of them.
In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively.
Harris is doing better than Biden compared to the previous Emerson swing state poll. But how long will this first blush of excitement for Harris last? Allow the Trump campaign and the Republicans to show America just who Harris is and what she wants for America, and Harris's numbers will begin to slip, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
If Trump can win any one of those states, Biden's path to 270 electoral votes becomes much more difficult. Victory by Trump in two of those states and Harris can pack her bags for California.
“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Harris’s numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”
Naturally, the Biden campaign celebrated: "We're close!"
"With a popular message, a strong record on the issues that matter most to swing voters, multiple pathways to 270 electoral voters, and unprecedented enthusiasm on her side, the Vice President is in a strong position to take on Donald Trump and win in 104 days," Jen O'Malley Dillon, chair of the Harris campaign, wrote in a memo Wednesday.
We're not going to hear the word "inflation" from Harris on the stump. Nor are we going to hear the word "border." We are going to hear a lot about "abortion," which about 40% of voters will see as a negative. O'Malley Dillon failed to mention that the "multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes" are only possible if Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
One wildcard in the polls will be Harris's choice of vice president. The choice of a swing state governor or senator might be important. In a close election, a vice president who brings a swing state along with them would be invaluable.
Harris' electoral chances could also sway based on her choice in running mate. The Harris campaign has said little about who is top contender, but the rumored roster includes rising stars like North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
Swing state constituents seem to prefer one of their own: 36% of Arizona voters want Kelly for the job; 27% of Michiganders would like to see their governor, Gretchen Whitmer; and 40% of Pennsylvania voters prefer their governor, Josh Shapiro, according to the recent poll.
Ultimately, Harris will be judged by her record as both a vice president and presidential candidate in 2020. Trump should like his odds if that's the case.
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