Young voters are abandoning Joe Biden in worrying numbers for the Democrats, especially when it comes to supporting Israel. The most recent NBC poll found 70% of 18-24-year-old voters disapprove of Biden's handling of the war.
The Israel-Hamas war is beginning to be a drag on Biden's re-election chances. What he can do to reverse the decline is a subject pf intense debate in the Biden camp.
Some "experts," according to the Washington Post, say that the younger voters are turned off to the "far-right politics" of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In fact, the explanation is far simpler; a lack of skepticism about news coming from Gaza and the inability of Gen-Zers to differentiate between news and propaganda.
“After what’s happening right now in the Middle East, it’s a very difficult decision for people from my background who we’re going to be voting for,” said Humza Irfan, who is Pakistani American and said a relative was killed last month in an apparent Israeli strike.
Gen Z and millennial voters are expected to make up nearly 40 percent of the electorate in 2024 and have already flexed their influence on elections. They helped flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court earlier this year to a liberal majority, and they boosted turnout on college campuses in Pennsylvania and Virginia in this month’s elections. Polling showed young voters were highly motivated by issues such as abortion, in which there is a clear contrast between the stances of Biden and Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination.
But a diminished turnout among young voters could complicate Biden’s reelection bid, especially in key battleground states such as Michigan. Biden flipped the state in 2020, and network exit polls found 61 percent of Michigan voters ages 18 to 29 supported his campaign.
“We all have TikTok, we all have Instagram. And it’s honestly like we’ve begun to form these parasocial relationships with the people in Palestine,” 19-year-old Marie Willy said, citing posts by a creator named Bisan Owda who shares videos from inside Gaza.
Taking the word of an anonymous internet poster as "news" is bat guano crazy and the fact that the girl doesn't realize that is troubling.
It should be noted that very few of the pro-Palestinian kids were ever going to vote for Trump. But not voting, or voting for a third candidate is almost as good.
Earlier in November, several leaders of national youth organizing groups wrote a letter to Biden telling him bluntly of the consequences of not changing course on the war.
“You and your Administration’s stance on Gaza risks millions of young voters staying home or voting third party next year,” the letter read, adding that it “will not be possible for those committed to turning out the youth vote this election to recruit the volunteers, organizers, staff, and donors needed to deliver the margins for Democratic victory down the ballot.”
What will all these threats to stay home or vote for someone else lead to?
Members of College Democrats at the University of Michigan, some of the president’s top defenders on campus, said they believe at the end of the day that their peers will turn out for Biden, especially when confronted with Trump as the alternative — even as some acknowledged that the president could improve his messaging around the war.
“I understand some folks’ frustration, especially of recent in light of the Israel-Palestine conflict … it’s a deeply emotional thing, deeply personal,” said Jade Gray, the co-president of the group. “And I do think that the steps that he’s taken are along the path to a cease-fire, and I know that that’s what folks are looking for next.”
Most of these college Democrats will hold their noses and vote for Biden — that is, "most" of them. In a close election, as this one is bound to be, even a 5% drop-off in support from 2020 to 2024 could cost Biden several states.
Biden will probably not call for a cease-fire. But the pressure he's under is growing and anything is possible in an election year.
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