Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who rebelled against Russia’s military leadership in June, has been confirmed dead by Russian authorities in a plane crash 100 miles northwest of Moscow.
But can those authorities be trusted to tell the truth? Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and former senior official at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), says there may be a number of reasons the Kremlin would want us to think Prigozhin was dead.
“At this time, we lack independent confirmation whether the Russian media or the Federal Air Transport Agency reporting about Prigozhin’s death is credible,” she said. “There could be many reasons why Moscow wants us to believe that Prigozhin is dead. If he indeed died in the plane crash, it’s probably a result of the assassination operation, ‘wet deeds’ in Russian tradecraft, conducted on Putin’s orders.”
One reason for the reported death of Putin’s former close ally is that the GOP debates are tonight and it would be in Putin’s interest to force split-screen coverage between the debate and the unfolding story of Prigozhin’s “death.”
“If Prigozhin is alive, the story could be a disinformation operation, intended to get Prigozhin back under cover to run clandestine operations in Africa and other places vital for Putin,” Koffler added. “What I don’t rule out is either way, it’s not a coincidence that it happened today, on the day of the GOP presidential debates. The story that originated in the Russian media has hijacked the U.S. news cycle. Prigozhin has become the ninth personality, along with the actual presidential candidates that the media is covering.”
This is at least the 15th critic or enemy who has died under suspicious circumstances since Putin came to power in 2000.
Related: Plane Carrying Wagner Group Chief Who Rebelled Against Putin May Have Been Shot Down
Putin decided to use today to clean house. The New York Times reports on the demotion of a general who had advance knowledge of Prigozhin’s “mutiny.”
The crash came hours after Russian authorities said that General Sergei Surovikin, a top officer who was seen as an ally of Mr. Prigozhin, had been relieved of his post. Mr. Surovikin and Mr. Prigozhin were seen as among the most ruthlessly effective Russian military leaders, both sidelined in power struggles with officials who had the ear of President Vladimir V. Putin.
General Sergei Surovikin was known as “General Armageddon” for his brutal tactics in Syria where he commanded the Russian forces. He served with Prigozhin in Syria, and the two developed a bond that has now led to the apparent death of one and at least the ruined career of another. Surovkin was removed from his post on August 18 “by a closed decree,” according to two individuals close to the Kremlin leadership. “The family still has no contact with him.”
Putin was apparently threatened by both men’s independent power centers. If the Russian dictator is that paranoid about his former friends and allies, the end may be approaching.
When you see plots everywhere around you, it’s time to head for the Führerbunker.
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