Russian-backed troops in Eastern Ukraine are mobilizing for war against what they claim is an “imminent” attack by Kyiv. While this was happening, shelling across the front is intensifying, killing two Ukrainian soldiers.
Kyiv is denying any such attack. “It’s a fake mobilization in response to a fake threat,” said Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi. “What they are trying to do is to create panic and fear, also on our side and among our people.”
What the psychological games are doing is creating conditions for Russian President Vladimir Putin to execute any one of several scenarios, from a full-scale incursion to possible “false flag” operations that would result in Putin and the Russian army being “invited” into Ukraine by the rebels.
Russian-installed authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk on Friday night instructed the areas’ women, children and elderly to leave for Russia, organizing convoys of buses. On Saturday, Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, ordered the general mobilization of men between 18 and 55 years old, including reservists, telling them to report to enlistment offices. Men of that age were banned from leaving the enclave.
“I appeal to all the men of the Republic, who are able to hold weapons in their hands, to stand up for their families, their children, wives, mothers,” Mr. Pushilin said in a televised address. Russian-installed authorities in Luhansk announced a similar decision.
Putin is deliberately adding to the chaos and confusion by agreeing to take in refugees that are pouring into Russia from Eastern Ukraine, promising them lodgings and $130.
Putin doesn’t care about the refugees. But he loves the fact that they are clogging the roads in Eastern Ukraine, making it more difficult for Kyiv to defend their country.
Vladimir Putin is giving Biden and NATO the impression that something is going to happen. As for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he’s angry at Biden and NATO for using such apocalyptic rhetoric in describing what Russia is doing. He’s trying to keep his country calm while Biden is telling everyone that war is just around the corner.
Kyiv has said that while the security situation is deteriorating, it doesn’t share Washington’s apocalyptic predictions. Speaking Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, where he received a standing ovation, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine isn’t living in a delusion but continues to carry on in the face of an existential threat.
“Just putting ourselves in coffins and waiting for foreign soldiers to come in is not something we are going to do,” he said. “But we stand ready to respond to everything.”
Until last week shelling and firing incidents along the front line averaged five to six a day, but that number has surged more than 10-fold in the last three days, said Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk, the commander of Ukrainian forces in Donbas.
Putin may use the fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk as a pretext for war, but that would be painfully obvious. Certainly, Putin can be more subtle than that.
The Russian president is pulling all the levers now. Biden and NATO can only react. And as time goes by without an invasion, Putin becomes stronger and Biden weaker.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member