Israel Bracing for the Signing of a New Iran Nuclear Deal

Joe Biden is going to sign off on re-establishing the Iranian nuclear deal that Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of in 2018.

There have been hints for several weeks that the two sides were close to a deal. Now analysts are expecting an agreement to be finalized this week. Significantly, the deal will purportedly lead to the release of American and Western hostages being held by Iran.

But Israel, which believed the original 2015 deal was bad, says that what they’ve seen of this deal leads them to believe it’s “spectacularly bad.”

Times of Israel:

Quoting an unnamed Israeli security official, Channel 13 news reported that while Israel considered the original deal to have been bad, the revived accord taking shape is “spectacularly bad,” as it does not factor in the progress Iran has made since.

Referring to a leaked draft of the imminent accord, the source said Iran will not be required to destroy its advanced centrifuges under the revived agreement. Tehran will have to reduce its uranium enrichment levels, but it has already developed the capability to enrich at high levels. It will also be required to cease producing uranium metal, a crucial component of the bomb-making process. However, the source noted that Iran now has the knowledge to be able to manufacture such materials in the future.

“In essence, it is an agreement that leaves Iran as a nuclear threshold state,” the network said, citing the security source.

It should be obvious that you can’t put the nuclear genie back in the bottle. Iran has everything it needs to make a nuclear weapon right now, including highly advanced centrifuges that can spin raw uranium into fissile material 2.5 times faster than their old centrifuges. Couple that with uranium already enriched to 20%, and Iran would be days away from having enough nuclear material to build at least one bomb.

We might agree that the new deal is “spectacularly bad” indeed.

The new agreement is said to entail the US granting waivers on sanctions against Islamic Republic’s oil sector rather than lifting them outright. This will require the renewal of waivers every few months, as was done with the 2015 deal.

According to the diplomats, the time between the initiation of the deal and when sanctions are waived is not yet decided, but is estimated to be between one and three months.

Iran is also seeking a guarantee that the US will not be able to withdraw unilaterally from the agreement again, which would require an act of Congress. It is also demanding promises that the US will halt pressuring companies not to trade or invest in Iran.

In the draft 20-page agreement, there is apparently no mention of what happens to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium above the 5% cutoff. At the outset of the 2015 agreement, Russia took several hundred pounds of enriched uranium into custody — only to give it back a little at a time later.

Israel is right. This deal is “spectacularly bad.”