Rather than using social media as a notebook, it seemed better to establish a separate optionally accessible site: Signal to Noise. The benefit of a members-only site is it reduces trolling. The Belmont Club will remain open and free, as usual. To keep the length manageable, I will start a new notebook every week or so. Sign up here to become a VIP member.
The turning point
The war in Ukraine has reached a curious point. While the Russian army is still on the tactical offensive, it is now on the strategic defensive. According to U.S. DOD briefings, Russia has switched to a battle of attrition. This indicates the Kremlin’s acceptance of a long war in the field. Reports that Putin has purged general officer and intelligence agency ranks, his chilling warning to oligarchs and efforts to drum up public support with mass rallies means he is digging in for a long fight.
Blockade, the traditional weapon of seapowers against landpowers, now takes the form of sanctions. Putin’s own obvious riposte is to organize a regime of countersanctions similar to Napoleon’s “continental system.” But Putin can hardly do this himself. He needs China and, to a lesser extent, India.
The new Cold War creates problems for Joe Biden too because it will force him to focus on industrial onshoring, energy independence, and fostering innovation instead of his program of Woke pork barrel as exemplified by his Build Back Better and the Green New Deal. Can the elderly Joe do it?
The world order within the resistance to Putin
President Biden met with world leaders on a day of rare and intense diplomacy in Brussels, seeking to rally NATO, the Group of 7 industrialized powers and the European Union to confront and further isolate Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Biden, heading off to Brussels, might see himself as a latter-day FDR about to discuss with his Grand Alliance, the shape of the coming world. But it’s probably premature to be considering off-ramps before there are second fronts. In a sense there already is a second front in the sanctions, but it is one that is strategically fraught, because although seemingly safe, it is potentially dangerous. By fighting Russia’s regional war with sanctions Biden made it global. Biden’s choice of global sanctions as a weapon is subtle but profound. Inside the resistance to Putin is an newer world order waiting to be born to replace the old, failed one. That fact will drive Biden’s strategy in ways that will affect the midterms and the world.
Q Do you believe the actions today will have an impact on making Russia change course in Ukraine?
A Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that… You — you — you’re playing a game with me.
If the goal of sanctions is not deterrence it must be something else. What is that something?
Biden on food shortages:
"With regard to food shortage…it's gonna be real." pic.twitter.com/F3dQ7NLqqB
— TheBlaze (@theblaze) March 24, 2022
