Fifty dancers on the stage and every one of them wants to be Lord of The Dance. That’s the image that comes to mind when I look at the jockeying taking place among the states in the 2008 nomination process.
Each state hopes that being first will translate into prestige, power, and national influence. And money.
My home state of Florida is one of the dancers currently in the spotlight. Florida’s Republican majority legislature set the primary date for January 29th, and on Tuesday the state Republican Party made it official by confirming that date in filings with the national leadership.
Both Republican and Democrat national committees have rules designed to prevent states from holding their nominating contests before February 5th. While the Democrats have exceptions in place for New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada there are no allowances on the Republican side.
Republican Party rules call for Florida to lose half of their 114 delegates while Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean has stated that he will strip the state of all its delegates to their convention.
In spite of the possible consequences Florida State Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer is hoping for a possible scenario to play out that will allow the entire delegation to be seated in Minnesota. The less likely premise relies on a loophole that Greer believes he has found in the rules. In his interpretation, while the primary vote is a binding winner-take-all contest the actual delegates are not selected until a date after the February 5th threshold.
The other possibility is that the eventual nominee will use his influence to have the full delegation seated. The story line could very well play out that way, but it does nothing to address what happens before the nominee is selected.
The two final interlocked pieces of the primary puzzle are the ability to campaign and raise funds. The Democrat candidates have pledged not to campaign in the state once the appeals process comes to an end at the end of the month. That will not prevent them from holding fund-raising events or speaking to groups smaller than 200 people. The question is, will those constraints allow for an effective effort among the voters or in raising significant amounts of money? Unless a compromise is reached both areas will be negatively impacted and the primary reduced to a beauty contest.
At this time the only limit imposed by Republican rules are the loss of delegates. This will allow the candidates to continue to visit the state and stage campaign events. Fund-raising is not prohibited, but some party faithful may limit contributions in protest of the prospect of having only half of the delegates given credentials. In the greater scheme of the eventual national election, this should give the Republican nominee a decided advantage.
It is all but certain that current situation will continue to change. Florida is much too big a player to be ignored, and no one wants to lose the prestige, power, or national influence they are trying to gain.
It may seem like the positions staked out by all sides indicate that the dance card has been set. Rest assured, the dancers are still just warming up.
Jim Lynch has been interested in politics since he saw the neat plastic canes filled with gold flecked water that Barry Goldwater supporters were carrying at the ’64 convention. He lives between Tampa and Orlando along the I-4 corridor, and writes at bRight&Early.
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