The information from the census is beginning to trickle out and we’re learning the winners and losers in the congressional sweepstakes. It’s official: California is a loser while Texas and Florida are winners.
On Monday, news about the congressional fallout from the census numbers began trickling out.
For the first time in 170 years, California has lost congressional representation because of a diminishing population.
There are only 435 seats in Congress and the Census Bureau rearranges those chairs every ten years. California is among the states that lost in the every-ten-years game of musical chairs.
#BREAKING: Census Apportionment Data:
HOUSE SEAT LOSES:
CA: -1
IL: -1
MI: -1
NY: -1
OH: -1
PA: -1
WV: -1HOUSE SEAT GAINS:
TX: +2
CO: +1
FL: +1
MT: +1
OR: +1
NC: +1— The Election Wizard (@Wizard_Predicts) April 26, 2021
It’s not hard to understand why California lost a congressional seat – and representation in Congress – while Florida and Texas picked up congressional seats.
After losing people steadily since 2017, California’s growth was slow enough to lose a congressional seat while Florida and Texas, where Californians are fleeing, gained one and two seats, respectively.
The Associated Press reported that California still has the most people at 39.58 million but because its growth didn’t keep up with the nation’s average growth rate it will lose one of its 53 congressional seats.
California’s population grew by about 2.3 million people since the 2010 Census but has been nearly flat since 2017.
“It’s certainly a remarkable result given the broader history of the state, which has been just almost relentless population growth,” said Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California who studies political redistricting. “The state has just been booming almost since Day One, so to have it be slowing down this much is really historically unprecedented.”
“Remarkable”? Really?
Immigration
California’s population has remained “flat since in 2017” because something else happened in 2017. Donald Trump became president and made halting illegal immigration the centerpiece of his presidency. His tough words and swift action severely slowed the catch-and-release policies that had previously allowed bogus claims of refugee status. The economic refugees were told they had to make their claims in the closest country, which in most cases was Mexico. This discouraged a flood of illegal immigration. Previously, people would traverse several different countries before making claims of refugee status in the US.
This is the lesson. When non-citizens are given the same representation as citizens it means that citizen representation is diluted. Trump was right. And he was right when he wanted to include a question on the census asking if people were in the country illegally. He did not want congressional representation and the federal dollars that follow doled out for people who are in the country illegally.
Indeed, McGhee, of the Public Policy Institute of California, admits that residents bailing out of the state and a slowdown in immigration, both illegal and legal, are big reasons why the seat was lost.
In fact, California has lost more residents to other states than it’s gained for all but three of the past roughly 30 years, McGhee said.
Those losses typically are offset by international immigration into the state, something that’s slowed in recent years, he said. Births also are declining while deaths are increasing, a phenomenon across the U.S. that’s slightly faster in California.
California probably will get the seat back in the next census because of Joe Biden reinstating border policies that have created a flood of illegal immigration.
Related: Watch Out, Pelosi: The Census Results May Give Republicans an Edge in the 2022 Election
California’s Business and Tax Climate Sucks
California’s onerous business regulations, lack of affordability for employees, and high taxes are disincentives to remaining in the state. Even Silicon Valley founders are leaving for Texas and Tennessee.
The business climate and subsequent loss of jobs in California will get worse if Joe Biden’s proposal to increase capital gains taxes from 23.8% to 43.4% goes into effect. The upshot for California would be a nearly 60% capital gains tax rate.
43.4% capital gains tax might kill the golden goose that is America/Silicon Valley. People need an incentive to build long term #startups of value. In California, that would be a 56.4% tax burden. >50% Spells death to job creation.
43.4% capital gains tax might kill the golden goose that is America/Silicon Valley. People need an incentive to build long term #startups of value. In California, that would be a 56.4% tax burden. >50% Spells death to job creation.
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) April 22, 2021
What business that could move would stay in California to be taxed at a nearly 60% tax rate?
The California Policy Center calls the state policies “anti-business” and “anti-people.”
“This is just the latest consequence of California’s anti-business, anti-people policies that force Californians to leave their homes and loved ones and move to more free and welcoming states,” said Chantal Lovell, communications director with the California Policy Center. “We all know California is losing productive residents and job creators to other states, yet not a week goes by without politicians trying to raise taxes, increase regulations, and make it harder for individuals to earn an honest living.”
Firebrand California Assemblyman Kevin Kiley ruefully observed, “We just lost a seat in Congress. If the California Exodus is a myth, apparently the Census Bureau is in on it.”
We just lost a seat in Congress. If the California Exodus is a myth, apparently the Census Bureau is in on it.
— Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) April 26, 2021
California’s soon-to-be-deposed leader, Democrat Gavin Newsom, presumed to tell businesses how they should behave even as he presided over one of the biggest boondoggles of buffoonery in the not-so-high-speed train to nowhere, the $31 billion COVID employment scandal that paid prison inmates for being unemployed, and his signing of AB 5, a bill designed to kill freelance jobs. It’s a bill so deranged that Joe Biden and the Democrats in the U.S. House plan to roll out the anti-job plan nationwide.
Californians pay among the highest personal income taxes in the nation. And as Forbes notes, people left states with the highest taxes.
The average top personal income tax rate for states losing seats in congress is 6.5%, which is 46% greater than the average top income tax rate for states gaining seats (4.45%) #census2021
The average top personal income tax rate for states losing seats in congress is 6.5%, which is 46% greater than the average top income tax rate for states gaining seats (4.45%) #census2021 #txlege #ncpol https://t.co/4IK9BuEAFj
— patrickmgleason (@patrickmgleason) April 27, 2021
COVID Response
Governor Gavin Newsom’s onerous lockdown orders and slavish devotion to teachers’ unions in his failure to get schools back open are among the biggest reasons why people have bailed out of the state. A page devoted exclusively to Leaving California thrives on Facebook for a reason.
Who needs to read books about historical tyrants when you can read the daily news about Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, and New York’s Andrew Cuomo, whose states all lost a congressional seat.
And where are those fleeing going?
To Texas, which just picked up two congressional seats and Florida, which just picked up one seat.
New Yorkers are either moving to Florida or making their second homes there their primary residences.
And people are voting with their feet and going to other places in the south, notably Texas, Tennessee, and South Carolina.
The Memphis Commercial Appeal reports that, as predicted, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas led the way in the 16 Southern states.
Tennessee as a whole grew by 8.9% from 2010, according to census data. It now has a resident population of 6,910,840. Tennessee will continue to have its nine seats in the U.S. House.
Georgia grew by 10.6% in that time period, Florida by 14.6% and Texas by 15.9%. Some states had less growth, including Arkansas at 3.3%. Mississippi lost population, with -0.2% growth.
The changes in population are a direct result of government policy decisions. There comes a time when people just can’t take it anymore. They flee.
The tyrants in charge should no longer ignore them.
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