There’s been a realignment in American politics that’s been happening somewhat below the radar given that Democrats still proclaim themselves the party of the working man.
According to the office of Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), nine of the 10 wealthiest congressional districts are represented by Democrats, while the GOP now represents most of the poorer half of the country, according to median income data.
“Republicans were the party of the country club, and they’re increasingly the party of country,” lobbyist and political analyst Bruce Mehlman told Axios.
Democrats have concentrated their efforts on attracting the professional class as well as college-educated women, minorities, and the educated young. “We have seen an inversion of Democrat and Republican shares of the highest- and lowest-income districts — and the highest and lowest college degree-holding districts,” Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman told Axios.
By the numbers: 64% of congressional districts with median incomes below the national median are now represented by Republicans — a shift in historical party demographics, the data shows.
Some of the highest-income districts have long voted Democrat, but growing inequality is widening the gap between them and working-class swing districts critical to winning majorities.
“Increasingly, districts that make up the majority of the Democratic caucus don’t really reflect the middle-income districts where the House is won and lost,” Wasserman said.
Zoom in: Democrats are still competitive and have held on to a number of swingy, middle-income districts, including Kaptur’s in Ohio. She is one of only five House Democrats representing districts won by former President Trump.
How is this possible? Democrats have a skewed sense of what middle and lower-income voters want — what they want before government goodies, before intrusive government agencies, and before being told who’s a man, who’s a woman, and what bathroom they’re supposed to use.
“It’s one way for her to highlight … that there are still those districts, especially in middle America away from the coasts, that are not feeling the benefit of all the policies in place,” a Kaptur aide told Axios. “That there is still work to be done to uplift these communities.”
Kaptur also sees another interpretation: “The other way you could look at it is: how is it possible that Republicans are representing the majority of people who struggle?” she told Insider, which first reported on the chart.
Between the lines: The relationship between geography, education, income and politics is complex — and experts point to education as a stronger indicator of party affiliation.
“I suspect income is downstream of education and geography. Voters with college degrees or more earn higher salaries, live where homes cost more, and increasingly skew Democratic,” Mehlman said.
Kaptur scratches her head about the attraction of blue-collar and “struggling” voters to the GOP. That’s a tell right there. When you’re economically challenged — where mothers worry whether there will be enough food at the end of the month — you’re not going to care about abortion, the “wage gap,” or other issues that Democrats say the struggling class should be worried about. They care about the safety of their neighborhood. They pray that politicians don’t screw up the economy and make the situation worse — like Biden did with inflation.
Trump won these voters and ushered in a historic realignment by promising to make America great again, and that meant making them feel “secure” again. Unless or until Democrats figure that out, they will be forced to fall back on catering to the rich.
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