Nuclear Weapons Convoy Spotted in Central Russia Headed for Ukraine Border

NATO is warning member states that Russia is preparing to test its nuclear-capable torpedo drone Poseidon, possibly in the Black Sea, as Vladimir Putin continues his efforts to discourage Western nations from assisting Ukraine in the war.

In addition, a train operated by the secretive Russian nuclear division is headed for Ukraine. Some international nuclear experts believe Putin is playing with capabilities and not planning a specific nuclear action. But with Russia’s battlefield losses mounting, Putin may feel he has no other option but to escalate and use a nuclear weapon as either a demonstration to definitively warn NATO away or to give Russia’s reeling forces a local tactical advantage.

Times of London:

Konrad Muzyka, a defence analyst based in Poland, said the train, spotted in central Russia, was linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence and that it was “responsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units”.

International analysts suggest, however, that a more likely demonstration of Putin’s readiness to use nuclear weapons could come in the Black Sea. A senior defence source said that he faced a significant risk if he chose to deploy a nuclear weapon in the battlefield, as it could go wrong. “They could misfire and accidentally hit a Russian city close to the Ukrainian border such as Belgorod,” the source said. “Then he would have to escalate.”

There may be more to this “nuclear train” than meets the eye. Some analysts suggest that, in addition to nuclear weapons, the train could be carrying more mundane supplies. But as long as Western militaries think it’s a nuke train, whatever is being carried on it takes on a special significance.

🇬🇧🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦😃 Ukraine Territory Defence Forces Russian Nuclear Train has been spotted on the border of Ukraine where Putin extends to carry out a Nuclear Test on Intelligence. West & Ukraine will not be threatened by Putin Ukraine will continue to take their land back https://t.co/2hjBBGJXmP

— Jessica Martina Winfield (@Jessica72351918) October 4, 2022

It should be noted that President Putin knows that the U.S. and NATO have their eyes fixed on that train and know what it’s carrying. Putin also knows that NATO is keeping track of the drone submarine — known in the West as the Poseidon — and is fully aware of its capabilities. Putin isn’t going to surprise anyone if he chooses to escalate to nuclear weapons.

Professor Andrew Futter, a nuclear weapons expert at the University of Leicester, said the nuclear submarine could perform various tactical functions and was far more than simply a nuclear delivery platform. He suggested that, as in the case of the train, Russia was trying to send a signal to the West that it should stop meddling in the conflict or risk further escalation.

But a sizable number of analysts believe that Putin may be ready to escalate. The battlefield situation is not quite irretrievable, but the momentum is all on the side of Ukraine.

James Rogers, director of research at the Council on Geostrategy, said that he would not rule out a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine’s advancing forces, no matter how unlikely that seemed. “Given the quality of the decision-making in the Kremlin at the moment, nothing should be discounted. The Russians are getting desperate, but it would be a dramatic escalation and one that countries such as India and even China would surely condemn,” he said.

Vladimir Putin has made it abundantly clear that he believes Ukraine is an existential threat to Mother Russia and that only regime change in Kyiv will stop the war. The farther away that goal becomes for Putin, the closer the world gets to the use of nuclear weapons.

Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has dismissed the idea of peace negotiations based on anything except the return of all land that Russia has taken over the last decade. This is a formula for Armageddon. And it’s suicidal for Ukraine. NATO nations — including the United States — are not going to risk annihilation for a massively corrupt, nominally democratic nation like Ukraine. And if the doddering old fool in the White House tries to tie his political fortunes to battlefield success in Ukraine, he should be impeached.

Zelenskyy should try to begin negotiations immediately. His armies have deeply wounded Russian pride. Let’s see if the actor can switch roles from warrior to peacemaker.