The immediate aftermath of the murder of George Floyd saw a dramatic increase in violent crime across the country. But the political movement Floyd’s death spawned — “Defund the Police” — ended up creating a massive spike in the murders of black people as law enforcement pulled back from policing black communities in what’s referred to as “The Ferguson Effect.”
The left sniffs at the Ferguson Effect because it, in essence, blames their coddling of violent protesters for the spike in crime. But given the anecdotal evidence from every large city about the reality of the effect —some police making a conscious effort not to get involved — it would seem that the Ferguson Effect can certainly be included among any causes for the increase in violent crime.
Related: Studies Show That Anti-Police Protests Have Led to Rise in Violent Crime
The year 2020 may have been unique because of the pandemic and conditions surrounding the lockdowns.
In 2019, at least 7,484 Black Americans were murdered. That number shot up to at least 9,941 murdersin 2020, meaning there was an increase of 2,457 Black Americans murdered over the previous year.
The number of Black murders was also far higher than White murders in 2020. The FBI data shows there 7,043 White people murdered that year, meaning 2,898 more Black people were killed compared to Whites.
Between 2010 and 2019, there was an average of 5,954 White murders, which is roughly 16% lower than the 10-year average of Black murders. During that same time period, an average of 6,927 Black Americans were murdered each year, meaning Black murders shot up by 43% in 2020 compared to the previous 10-year average.
There was a roughly 21% increase in White murders in 2020 compared to 2019.
But as bad as the pandemic lockdowns were, some experts are pointing their finger directly at the “social justice movement” and their demands to defund big-city police departments.
St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson coined the increase the Ferguson effect in November 2014. The theory gained widespread attention in 2016 after the Manhattan Institute’s Heather Mac Donald wrote an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal arguing the effect is one “where the Black Lives Matter narrative about racist, homicidal cops has produced virulent hostility in the streets.”
The summer of 2020 was marked by swaths of America pledging support for the Black Lives Matter movement and defunding the police. Many cities answered supporters’ calls by removing portions of police funding, such as Portland and New York City. The social justice movement even trickled down to small cities and spread to nearly every facet of America, stretching from major corporations, celebrities and the sports world demanding change.
It’s difficult to single out one specific cause of a violence epidemic. It was no doubt a combination of factors that has led to the violent death toll among blacks in 2020 and beyond.
But one thing is certain. All those cities that consciously disarmed themselves by defunding the police have now tried desperately to pour money and manpower back into their police departments. They’ve made some cosmetic changes — mostly increased paperwork for officers and less justification for drawing one’s weapon — but we have yet to hear an apology from Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, or the dozens of other cities and towns who defunded the police, only to end up regretting it.
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