The Biden administration felt it was caught flat-footed when the delta variant first became widespread last summer — at least in terms of their political response. This time, they want to be ready.
The administration is trying to get out ahead of the public relations problem they’ll be faced with when large-scale infections from the omicron variant of the coronavirus occur. They are warning that an “explosion” of cases is coming from widespread exposure to the variant.
But what are they getting ready for?
Driving the news: A new analysis by South Africa’s largest private insurer paints a picture of Omicron’s clinical risk: Two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine appear to be significantly less effective against severe disease with Omicron than previous variants.
But the variant is less likely to lead to hospitalization in adults than the original version.
What they’re saying: “Everything points to a large wave. A large wave is coming,” a senior Biden administration official told Axios.
“It will be fast. It won’t be as severe, but regrettably, there will be plenty of hospitalizations,” the official added.
The White House is worried because the health care system is already burned out, including exhausted doctors and nurses in some areas where COVID-19 was a severe problem.
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But omicron cases appear to be peaking in South Africa, about one month after the first patients were diagnosed with the variant. And existing vaccines may offer enough protection for the vast majority of people who have received them.
By the numbers: The South African analysis, by Discovery Health, found that the risk of hospital admission among adults diagnosed with the Omicron variant is 29% lower than it was during South Africa’s first wave of infections in 2020. The researchers adjusted their calculations by vaccination status.
Their vaccine effectiveness analysis included more than 211,000 positive COVID-19 test results, from which 41% were from adults who’d received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
During the current Omicron wave, the two-dose regimen was 70% effective against severe disease requiring hospital admission. (Vaccine effectiveness is measured against the same risk in the unvaccinated.)
Increasingly, Americans will assess the risk of illness themselves and act accordingly. Fewer and fewer people are being scared into sitting down, shutting up, and doing what they’re told. But most Americans also aren’t suicidal; they will do what they have to in order to protect themselves and their loved ones.
Whether that jibes with what the White House is telling them to do is another matter.
These warnings are purely CYA precautions. Later, when the omicron variant doesn’t kill a lot of people, the White House will celebrate how their “quick actions” saved so many lives. The audience of people who listen to them and believe them is shrinking every day and will continue to shrink as long as they insist on telling us the apocalypse is upon us.
