Blake Masters (R-Ariz.) has trailed behind Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) for the entirety of the 2022 campaign, with the exception of a few polls showing the race tied. But Masters has had momentum in the final weeks, helped in part by his strong debate performance last month, and Kelly’s lead in the polls has diminished significantly this past month. Now, the final poll from Emerson shows Masters ahead — albeit barely.
“The final Emerson College Polling survey of Arizona voters finds Republican Blake Masters with 48% support for US Senate, and incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly with 47% … Since September, Masters’ support has increased three points while Kelly has held 47%,” Emerson reports.
While this is a positive development for Masters, there are plenty of factors going against him. According to the poll, undecided voters would likely break for Kelly, and Kelly goes into the election with a slim majority (52%) expecting him to win.
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Both candidates have positive favorability ratings, with 52% having a favorable view of Kelly, and 50% having a favorable view of Masters. Both have equal unfavorable ratings of 46%.
But the real problem for Masters is how he polls with independent voters. “Arizona independent voters break for Kelly over Masters, 50% to 42%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independent men break for Kelly by five points, 51% to 46%, whereas independent women break for Kelly by nine points, 48% to 37%.”
The race will no doubt be a close one. Luckily for Masters, in the gubernatorial race, Republican Kari Lake has been leading in the polls, and that could boost him on Election Day.
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