Despite the success of the recall effort against California Governor Gavin Newsom, he’s looked likely to beat the effort to oust him. But a new poll shows “some big warning signs” for the embattled governor.
Opposition to the recall has generally outpolled support for it, and the latest poll is no different. Support for the recall is at 43 percent, while opposition is at 48 percent with 9 percent unsure. But the trouble for Newsom is that this poll indicates there’s momentum for the recall because the last poll taken in May had opposition to the recall with a double-digit lead.
But things are even worse than that for Newsom. A whopping 58 percent of voters say that regardless of the recall effort, they want someone new in 2022, when Newsom is up for reelection. According to Eric Ting of SFGATE, this suggests Newsom “could be in serious danger in 2022 if his opponent is a Democrat, independent with enough name recognition or a Republican not closely tied to former President Donald Trump and the National Republican Party.”
In addition to that, just over half of voters are undecided on who should replace Newsom. “That is also a warning sign for Newsom,” muses Ting. “It once again highlights that most voters — with the exception of pro-recall ones — are not paying much attention to the race. […] If turnout is highest among those who want to recall Newsom, that’s obviously a problem for the governor.”
Currently, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder is leading the race to replace Newsom at 16 percent. What about Bruce “Caitlyn” Jenner? He’s at just 4 percent.
Related: Judge Orders California to Include Larry Elder on Recall Election Ballot
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