News & Politics

CNN/ORC Poll: Trump Takes Presidential Lead Post-RNC

REUTERS/Aaron Josefczyk - RTSJ4IK

Presidential candidate Donald Trump has taken the lead in the presidential horse race according to the latest CNN/ORC poll. Post-RNC, Trump leads Clinton with 44% of the vote, while Clinton garners 39%.  Libertarian Gary Johnson has 9% of registered voters’ support and Jill Stein has 3%.

In a 2-way head-to-head, Trump leads Clinton 48% to 45%.

CNN notes that it hasn’t seen a convention bounce in its polling since 2000, when both Bush and Gore got an 8% bounce in the post-convention surveys.

Trump’s support is growing among independent voters. Forty-three percent of independents say they are inclined to support Trump, while 41% were dissuaded from doing so following the convention. This is a 12% increase from pre-convention polls, which showed Trump with 31% of independents inclined to support him.

Another notable finding in the survey is that Trump’s favorability rating is rising. Following the RNC, 46% of registered voters hold a favorable image of Trump while 39% viewed Trump positively prior to the convention. On the other hand, 41% hold a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton while 55% have a negative view of the former first lady. Clinton’s negatives are now 4% higher than Trump’s.

The survey also asked which candidate was better suited to handle important issues. Voters prefer Trump to handle terrorism and the economy over Clinton, but Clinton has a 5% lead on the issue of  handling foreign policy.

Former presidential candidate Senator Ted Cruz has not fared well post-convention.  Cruz, who was a source of controversy at the RNC when he refused to endorse Trump in his prime-time speech, has seen his image take a hit.  Prior to the convention 36% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of Cruz but following the RNC, Cruz’s favorables dropped to 27%. Among self-identified Republicans, 49% have an unfavorable opinion of the senator.

The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone July 22-24 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. Results for the sample of 882 registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Democrat National Convention begins today, although it is mired in its own controversy following the leak of thousands of DNC emails showing the party actively working to help Clinton win the nomination. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who was the chair of the party, was forced to step down right before the convention opened. Supporters of Bernie Sanders are angry about the emails and are gathering outside the Philadelphia convention for protests. Will Clinton see a convention bounce following the DNC or will the event be drowned out by all the scandals, controversies and protests surrounding the event?