In some ways, we’re a long way from the 2024 elections, but we also know how time flies. After all, the first primaries are mere months away.
If the headlines give any indication, the next presidential election looks like a rematch of 2020, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump dominating media coverage. And as of right now, polling bears out the notion of a Trump-Biden grudge match in 2024.
Issues & Insights (I&I) conducted a poll with Tippinsights that surveyed 662 Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents along with 456 Republicans and Republican-leading independents at the end of March, and the results show that both 2020 combatants have strong leads that they can’t necessarily coast on.
I&I/Tippinsights asked the question, “If the primary were held today, who would you vote for?”
Let’s start by looking at the Democrats. Biden currently has a 39% share of those surveyed, down four points from the previous month. Coming in at a strong second place was some vague “Other,” with 21%, followed by “Not Sure” with 9%.
Those are telling figures because a whopping 30% expresses some sort of dissatisfaction with the whole field and because anybody other than Biden has a lower share than “Not Sure.”
For some inexplicable reason, Michelle Obama is the choice of 8% of those surveyed, while Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) captured 7% each. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is the choice for 5% of survey respondents, while Hillary Clinton has 4% support.
Interestingly, Buttigieg is the only one in the survey who has increased his lead, even though it’s only a jump from 3% to 5%. Obama and Clinton held steady, while the others experienced slight drops in support.
So why should Biden watch his rearview mirror?
“Biden, it is widely agreed, at age 80 is suffering the infirmities of age, including frequent mumbling, lack of mental focus, confusion, trouble walking and stumbling, and now has tight limits imposed on the length of his work days in the White House,” writes I&I’s Terry Jones.
Jones also cites inflation, energy prices, foreign policy blunders, COVID-19, and spending as factors that could continue to dent Biden’s support.
“Many members to his left in the party have grown hostile to Biden,” Jones concludes. “So have some in the left-media.”
Recommended: You Won’t Believe What Trump Said About America’s Hardest-Left Governor
What about the Republican side? It’s no surprise that Trump looms large over the GOP landscape, but his support has dipped slightly. In the new poll, Trump’s support stands at 47%, a four-point dip over the previous month.
It also doesn’t come as a shock that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) is handily in second place, and his support has risen from 22% last month to 23% in the current poll. “Not Sure” (11%) and “Other” (9%) sit in the shadow of the two dominant men in the race.
Mike Pence slid two points in support to 5%, while Nikki Haley held steady with 4%. Other names like Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, and Vivek Ramaswamy had roughly a single percentage point among those surveyed.
Does anything make Trump’s lead less secure than the numbers bear out? Jones admits that “it’s highly unlikely that any will be able to knock Trump from his perch as the leading GOP candidate. Even so, it’s not impossible.”
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s recent indictment of the former president has galvanized much of Trump’s support and given him a leg up in fundraising, but Jones suggests that Trump has one big nemesis: himself.
He quotes Trump’s former chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, who told CNN in 2022, “There’s one other person who could beat him — which is himself. Donald Trump is sometimes his own worst enemy when it comes to campaigning.”
With our fast-paced news cycle, a million things could happen to either Biden or Trump before the primaries early next year. So buckle up, everybody. We’re in for a crazy ride.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member