Michael Totten

Hezbollah's Endgame? Pt. 2

_by Lee Smith_
David Wurmser, formerly Vice President Cheney’s Middle East adviser, writes in to comment on Iran’s role in the Beirut crisis.
“Iran has suffered some pretty serious defeats in Iraq, foremost is that the Shiites there kind of turned on Iran. May they not need to pull back and focus on their role as the champion of the Shiites right now, even at the cost of compromising their efforts to jump the Sunni-Shiite divide? They may actually be in no better a shape among Lebanon’s Shiites as they are among Iraq’s. Second, there were these really odd nasty exchanges between Zawahiri and Iran, which may have been born of Iran’s desire right now to solidify its own role as Shiite champion.
“Ahmadinejad himself has presided over a fairly turbulent few weeks, as the principalist faction, of which he and the speaker of the Majlis are both part. That faction has descended into caustic bickering — probably as a result of the traditional clergy of Qom’s resisting his increasing militarization of government — over a number of matters from ministerial resignations to constitutional wrangling to banking and fiscal independence, while his own mentor had one of his papers unusually slam him for meeting with former nationalists associated with Mossadeq. He may even face a no confidence move if the Majlis maneuvers to force another cabinet resignation. And all this while faces a chorus of response from the traditional clergy of Qom, who are horrified about his claims to be informed by the 12th imam.
“And there’s something else, too: In that press conference Walid Jumblatt held about the airport security, he also “called”:http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2008/05/jumblatt_expel.php for the expulsion of Iran’s ambassador. That could be a redline for Iran. And if it happened, it would deal a heavy blow to the Iranians.”
I asked David if Jumblatt’s request might signal that Washington is fully aware of, and behind, March 14’s actions at this point.
“It may be part of our effort to push back on Iran right now. As far afield as Afghanistan you find the Afghani government saying that Iran is sending weapons. So, across the board, we are pushing back against Iran. But the thing with the Iranians is, if you push you had better be ready to take it to the next level with them, because they will push back hard.”
While countless US, European and Israeli policymakers, analysts and journalists counseled that diplomacy would manage to “wedge” Syria away from Iran, there was really only wedge issue between them: Iran wanted to avoid sectarian warfare while the Syrians were willing, eager, to set fire to Lebanon — again. If this crisis is different, as David Wurmser says, different from the rest of the various crises that have plagued Lebanon the last three years, ever since the April 2005 withdrawal of Syrian troops, it is because there no longer is any difference between Tehran and Damascus’ Beirut strategy.