In what one can only describe as “disastrous news” for Democrats, two different opinion polls find that, among African Americans, support for President Trump is in the thirties. This number has been rising more or less constantly from a year ago, when it was in the mid-20s.
Rasmussen Reports explains on Twitter that one of the biggest differences between them and most other polling organizations is that they look at likely voters instead of at voters in general.
Analyzing Black Likely Voter Support for President Trump
In our view, pollsters using 'live-call-from-a-stranger' or so-called "gold standard" live surveying techniques while simultaneously not dropping their Likely Voters screens are working today at a disadvantage.
1/3 pic.twitter.com/X1qQSEEhuL
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 23, 2019
“All American Adults don’t vote. A portion of Registered Voters also don’t frequent national elections. That’s why we invest the extra $$ to ask political questions to only Likely Voters,” Rasmussen explains. “And we do this using techniques to assure privacy – just like in the voting booth.”
In other words, their polling mimics actual voting as much as possible. And yes, the result is that Rasmussen concludes that support for President Trump among African Americans is at 34 percent:
Fact Check: We are at 34%. Emerson apparently at 34.5% https://t.co/3lVOkoTB3R
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 24, 2019
Pollster Emerson, meanwhile, finds support for Trump among black registered voters at 34.5 percent. As The Epoch Times reports, that’s incredibly important because only 8 percent of African Americans voted for Trump in 2016.
ICYMI: Last Friday we showed Black Likely Voter approval for @realDonaldTrump at 34%.
We then found out that a recent widely quoted @EmersonPolling Registered Voters based poll showed Black Voter approval for @POTUS at 34.5%. https://t.co/SS9K9WS4Ix
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) November 25, 2019
Support for Trump among African Americans poses a major threat to the Democratic Party. Democrats have done horrendous among white voters for ages. The only way for them to actually win a presidential election is to destroy Republicans in the view of minorities — especially among blacks and Hispanics — and to get close among whites.
If these polls are correct, Democrats are already doomed. As RealClearPolitics explained last year, “[E]ven 20 percent African-American support for Trump would all but dismantle Democratic Party presidential hopes for 2020. Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election with 88 percent of the black vote. That was about a six-point falloff from Barack Obama’s share of the black vote in 2012.”
Yes, “even a small drop in African-American turnout or anything less than the usual 85 percent to 90 percent supermajority for a Democratic presidential candidate on Election Day can prove fatal.”
In fact, as RedState rightfully puts it, it will be fatal. Especially since support for Trump among Hispanics — another key Democrat minority group — is rising too. According to Emerson, 38.2 percent of Hispanics now approve of the president’s performance. Note, in 2016, 28% of Hispanics reportedly voted for him.
A ten-point increase among Hispanics in itself would be a game-changer. Add to that the 16 percentage-point increase among African Americans, and President Trump’s reelection seems increasingly likely.
And who do we have to thank for that? That’s right: Democrats and their impeachment hoax.
Support for Impeachment is dropping like a rock, down into the 20’s in some Polls. Dems should now get down to work and finally approve USMCA, and much more!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 25, 2019
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