Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has a long track record of humiliating pollsters. In 2020, she trailed in nearly every public survey, and the final RealClearPolitics average had Democrat Sara Gideon up by four points. Collins won by 8.6 points. In 2014, the polls had her cruising, and she won by even more than they predicted. Her Senate races follow a familiar pattern: the polls lowball her, and Maine voters correct the record on Election Day. But can she do it again?
Now she's trailing again, but not by much, and Republicans are counting on that pattern to hold. If I were a betting person, I'd bet that Collins will eke out a victory in November. I'd also bet that this is her last chance to win before the seat ultimately goes blue.
History is on her side.
In 2008, the final RCP average had Collins beating Tom Allen by 14.6 points, and she won by 23, an 8.4-point miss.
In 2014, the average had her ahead of Shenna Bellows 61.4% to 32.2%, and she won 68.5% to 31.5%, a 7.8-point miss.
In 2020, the polls underestimated her by a staggering 12.6 points. The polls were so bad that they never showed Collins ahead even once over Sara Gideon.
Across 2014 and 2020, the average miss in her favor was 10.2 points, or 9.6 points if you include 2008.
Obviously, this means that Collins outperforms the polls and looks good for winning again in November, right? Well, I would say yes, but there’s some nuance.
In 2014, the polls nearly nailed Bellows's share, while Collins gained 7.1 points over her polling. In 2020, Gideon finished 2.9 points below her polling, while Collins gained 9.7 points. In each case, the Democrat's number held roughly steady, and Collins scooped up nearly every undecided voter.
This year’s race looks familiar on the surface.
The current RCP average has Democrat Troy Jackson at 48.9% and Collins at 47.5%, and RCP rates it a Toss Up. Jackson led by about three points in July before the race tightened to a virtual tie in early October, and he's since rebuilt a lead of nearly 1.5 points. However, four polls in the average show Collins tied or ahead: Trafalgar and Fox at 47-47 and 49-49, CBS at 50-50, and co/efficient with Collins up two. The other six show Jackson ahead by two to four points.
Apply Collins's past polling misses to that 1.4-point deficit, and the results look great for Republicans. A 2014-sized miss gives her a 6.4-point win. An average miss gives her 8.8. A 2020-sized miss gives her 11.2.
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But here's the problem. According to data from RealClearPolitics, those past misses depended on a large pool of undecided voters, and that pool is shrinking. About 13% of the 2020 average was undecided or third-party, and 6.4% was in 2014. This year, it's 3.6%.
The GOP needs to understand a few realities. The ground Collins keeps making up keeps shrinking. Her margin fell from 37 points in 2014 to under nine in 2020. History says she can still win, most likely by somewhere between two and eight points.
If she wins, it'll likely be a tighter victory than she's had in recent memory.
Collins may be nobody’s favorite Republican, but her seat is important to the Republicans' holding the Senate for the final two years of Trump’s term. So, yeah, I’d bet on Collins surviving 2026, but the trends are clear: each cycle has left her with a smaller margin for error, and this year will be her toughest election. In fact, based on the trends, I wouldn’t expect Collins to seek reelection in 2032, which means that Republicans will have to try to hold that seat without her.
And that will be tough.
