Last year, Democrats dragged the federal government into a historic shutdown over Obamacare subsidies. After 43 days, which set a record, they finally cut a deal to fund the government and kick the subsidy question down the road. That vote didn't exactly work out in their favor, and it always looked like another funding standoff was on the horizon over the same issue. Well, here we are, and make no mistake: another shutdown is coming. But this time, it's not about Obamacare subsidies.
Nope, this time Democrats have another issue to justify holding up funding the government: the recent shootings involving federal law enforcement. Between the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti this month, Democrats are no doubt thinking they have all the pretext they need to refuse to fund the government.
According to reporting from Fox News’ Chad Pergram, the most recent shooting in Minnesota involving federal agents appears to have been the catalyst that “pushed some Democrats over the edge in opposition to funding DHS and ICE.”
Pergram explained the core of the problem: “It’s about the math.” Under Senate rules, the Republican majority still needs to secure 60 yeas to break a filibuster and move the multi-bill spending package to the floor. “Democratic votes are necessary to hit 60 yeas and break a filibuster on bringing the multi-bill spending package to the floor,” Pergram wrote. “Democrats are necessary to break that filibuster. They will likely stymie that bill now. The Democratic base simply will not tolerate a yes vote from their Members.”
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The House approved the measure on Thursday. The package funds 78% of all of the government, covering six appropriations bills that include the Pentagon as well as the Department of Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement. But Democrats’ resistance to the DHS/ICE funding—intensified by recent events in Minnesota—is threatening that support. 
Pergram noted that no procedural vote in the Senate would happen “until Wednesday at the earliest,” a schedule that could be further disrupted by the monster storm sweeping much of the country this week, potentially slowing travel and legislative activity.
He added that advancing the package through the House was already “a Herculean lift,” and with the House now adjourned, “it’s impossible to revamp the package quickly.”
This has significantly increased the odds of a shutdown.
“The late British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan said the most important factors in politics were ‘events,’” Pergram noted. “We’ve now had an ‘event.’ And this could dramatically impact the course of government funding this week.”
In all likelihood, the spending package is DOA.
“Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Saturday night.
Other Democrats took to the Sunday morning shows to proclaim their opposition to any bill that funds the Department of Homeland Security.
Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar told NBC’s Meet the Press, “No, I am not voting for this funding. Our Republican colleagues have to stand up and stop this.” On CBS’s Face the Nation, Independent Sen. Angus King of Maine, who caucuses with Democrats, said: “I can’t vote for a bill that includes ICE funding under these circumstances.”
While Democrats eventually caved on the previous shutdown, it seems unlikely they will on this one. This means that the Senate GOP will be under immense pressure to nuke the filibuster so that the minority party can’t hold the government hostage over politics anymore.
