It's Election Day, and the Math Looks Really Bad for Kamala Harris

Is the confidence from the left about this election just smoke and mirrors? Maybe. CNN's Karen Finney, after reflecting on her "PTSD from 2016," claimed on Monday night that there's a lot more going for Kamala Harris this time, and she has a feeling the vice president is going to win.

"But I — you know, my PTSD from 2016 just will not let me. But look, in general, I will — here's what I will say. The weekend before, in 2016, they kept saying she had it, and I just — I was on the road, I didn't feel it," Finney claimed. "And you can feel something in the air when it's going your way. And I was in Detroit on Sunday before I was on with you last night, and you could feel it."

Finney claims she senses momentum for Kamala, especially among black voters in Detroit, who feel energized and determined. She also cited the controversial Ann Selzer poll of Iowa and suggested that independents and older women seem focused on the election, driven by lasting anger over the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Finney clearly has a first-class seat on the Kamala is Going to Win bandwagon.

But then Marc Lotter, the former Trump 2020 Director of Strategic Communications, threw cold water on the idea that women voters are going to carry Kamala Harris to victory.

"The math doesn't work," he said bluntly. "The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states. In urban areas, they are down 1.4 million votes. In the battleground states, among women voters, rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000."

"Democrats have to win their races early, Republicans generally win them on Election Day, and the margins don't add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states," he continued. "And trust me, Karen, I was there in '16. I walked off the plane in New York, and I thought, 'If the election had but happened on Sunday, we would have barely won.' But I thought Hillary had studied herself and she had caught enough wind again to barely push by. Obviously, the pushing by barely wasn't the right answer. I just didn't get it right. I still think the energy is out there with Donald Trump."

"The math doesn't work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas."

"They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters."

"Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000."

"Democrats have to win their… pic.twitter.com/zarBQ7RY7o

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) November 5, 2024

CNN's Bakari Sellers tried to dismiss the early voting numbers, insisting that Republicans had simply "cannibalized" their in-person Election Day vote.

"But to your point about the math, I mean, we don't want to leave the viewers uneducated. Let's talk about the math. When you talk about a state like Georgia, for example, and what you've done in early voting is, you have exhausted all of your voters. In all the rural counties in Georgia, they're at 96, 98%. That is phenomenal. What you all have done with early voting for Republicans has been great," he said. 

For our VIPs: Is the GOP Really Cannibalizing Their Election Day Vote?

Sellers continued, "What happens, though, is you end up where we were eight years ago, which means that you cannibalize your voters who — and regardless of what you all may say. I mean, we're seeing it in Nevada, we're seeing it in Arizona, we're seeing it in Michigan, we're seeing it in Pennsylvania. It sounds good in theory but, yes, all of your voters are — they voted in these elections. They are early."

Lotter countered this by pointing to a targeted ground operation focused on new voters, specifically, those who did not vote in 2020 but have already voted this time around. According to him, this effort, organized by the America First Policy Institute and America First Works, has brought in a significant number of “new votes,” adding a layer of turnout that goes beyond simply mobilizing the usual base. He argued that this strategy could be pivotal, as it addresses the potential issue of over-relying on the same core supporters.