What Will Happen in Wisconsin on Election Day?

All eyes may be on Pennsylvania on Election Day, but there's no reason we shouldn't also be looking at Wisconsin. Whichever state is called first may actually tell us who is going to win the election. This certainly goes against conventional wisdom, as many pundits and media outlets have claimed that securing Pennsylvania is the key to winning the presidency, but even political analyst Mark Halperin said that this frame of mind is somewhat foolish. “Reorient yourself away from news framing that says it’s all about Pennsylvania.” 

According to Halperin, Kamala Harris "could win Pennsylvania and win the election, but she could also win Pennsylvania and lose the election because she doesn’t win Wisconsin.” To illustrate how pivotal Wisconsin has become, he cites his sources—two Republicans and one Democrat with strong knowledge of the state—who said they would be “somewhere between surprised and shocked if Kamala Harris won Wisconsin.”

For what it's worth, polling in Wisconsin for the 2024 race has been somewhat erratic. When Joe Biden exited the race, Trump was up by over three points in the RealClearPolitics average. But once Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, those numbers quickly tightened. Throughout the last month, polls have generally shown a neck-and-neck race, with most indicating a one- to two-point difference and one outlier giving Harris a six-point lead. Heading into Election Day, Harris holds a lead of less than one point—significantly narrower than Joe Biden's or Hillary Clinton’s advantage at this stage in their respective races.

Many conservative pundits and polling experts have argued that Wisconsin is particularly challenging for pollsters, predicting that 2024 polls may again skew pro-Democrat.

Final WI Polls 2020

AtlasIntel Biden +2
Susquehanna Biden +3
Civiqs Biden +4
Research Co Biden +8
Emerson Biden +8
Change Research Biden +8
CNN/SSRS Biden +8
SurveyMonkey Biden +10
Swayabe Biden +10
Ipsos Biden +10
NYT/Siena Biden +11
R&W Biden +12
Morning Consult Biden +13

— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 2, 2024

Further supporting the theory that Trump will outperform the polls are the signs that Kamala’s campaign might be dragging down Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Baldwin's lead against Eric Hovde in Wisconsin shrank across both public and internal polling, prompting Republicans to ramp up spending in the state, hoping to stage a last-minute upset.