After Democrats pushed Joe Biden out of the race and positioned Kamala Harris as the nominee, she initially saw a wave of support. Polls quickly shifted in her favor, with Harris leading in both the national average and several key battleground states.
The polls are definitely shifting back to Trump now. The highly-rated New York Times/Siena poll this week even showed Trump ahead by a point nationally. While a single point may not seem like a massive lead, it’s enough to secure an Electoral College victory.
What's been getting a lot of attention lately is that Nate Silver’s projection model has shown a Trump surge that's far more dramatic than what the polls are indicating. The latest model gives Trump a 64.4% chance of winning compared to Kamala Harris’s 35.3%.
🚨 BREAKING - Trump GAINS AGAIN in Nate Silver's election model
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 9, 2024
WIN ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 64.4% (+29.1)
🔵 Harris: 35.3%
TRUMP SWING STATE ODDS:
🔴 WISCONSIN: 53.4%
🔴 MICHIGAN: 54.9%
🔴 NEVADA: 60.8%
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: 64.9%
🔴 GEORGIA: 68.9%
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: 76.2%
🔴 ARIZONA: 76.6%… pic.twitter.com/4Kbvf7Jtsp
Bill Mitchell, the CEO of YourVoice Studios and host of YourVoice America, is warning Trump voters to be skeptical of Nate Silver's model.
"One reason Nate Silver (a democrat) may be showing an outsized lead for Trump heading into this debate is that he wants to shrink that lead after the debate no matter how Kamala performs to create the premise she won and is surging," he warned in a post on X.
Recommended: Even CNN Is Panicking About Kamala’s Slide in the Polls
Mitchell suggests that once the debate is over, the narrative will be that Kamala "passed the big test," the media will promptly push this message, and Harris will regain momentum in Silver's model.
"I have followed Nate Silver for years," Mitchell writes. "He is a democrat operative and not to be trusted."
DO NOT TRUST NATE SILVER:
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) September 10, 2024
One reason Nate Silver (a democrat) may be showing an outsized lead for Trump heading into this debate is that he wants to shrink that lead after the debate no matter how Kamala performs to create the premise she won and is surging. "She passed the big… pic.twitter.com/rXJePgnmpJ
Of course, the flip side to this is that many on the left are trashing Nate Silver, calling him a paid shill of Peter Thiel, who is backing Trump this cycle.
The reality is that people from both political parties tend to distrust anything that challenges their views, and some become suspicious when they hear things that align with their beliefs too perfectly. It’s human nature to second-guess information that either feels too good to be true or doesn’t fit the narrative they’ve accepted. My X feed is flooded with posts dissecting polls with users explaining why they don’t trust certain results. It’s a clear reflection of the unease surrounding this election, and many people are feeling anxious.
In moments like this, the best advice for anyone paying close attention to the election is to step back and take in as much information as possible. Rather than dismissing polls or cherry-picking favorable data, people should evaluate all the available numbers, trends, and expert analyses. In doing so, they’ll be better equipped to make informed judgments based on the full picture rather than emotion or bias.
