It's almost stunning if you think about it. A year and a half ago, Joe Biden had a clear edge in the 2024 presidential campaign. And yet, something has happened. Everything that Joe Biden's campaign had going for it has disappeared. Don't get me wrong. He could, in theory, still win in November, but he's lost the advantages he once had that had him favored in the race.
At this point, his only advantage is incumbency, and since voters can directly compare life under each man in the White House, it's not much of an advantage anymore. His approval ratings remain underwater and are worse than those of presidents who failed to win reelection.
And yet, for all the advantages Biden had that he has since lost, the one that is stinging the most is the cash advantage he was counting on to bury Trump
"Former President Donald Trump may enjoy a slight lead in early polling against President Biden, but the incumbent has a significant lead in another race, which is perhaps just as important this far out from November,” Democrat strategist Douglas Schoen wrote back in March. "Indeed, Biden’s cash advantage over Trump — currently sitting at roughly $40 million — may prove decisive in a race largely hinging on turnout and whichever campaign can effectively reach and mobilize voters."
Heck, the Biden campaign wasn't at all shy about how they were counting on the cash advantage to bury Trump.
"Joe Biden and his allies intend to bury Donald Trump in campaign cash, hoping that the president’s financial advantage will be the equalizer in a race that’s becoming more of an uphill climb for the president," Politico reported in March.
Today, Politico reports that "disappointment' and "depression" are setting in for Biden's biggest fundraisers as Trump has completely erased Joe Biden's financial edge in the race.
"Joe Biden’s campaign planned to bury Donald Trump in an avalanche of cash," the outlet wrote Sunday. "Instead, his allies are bracing for a slugfest without the benefit of a fatter wallet, as financial reports showed Trump outraising Biden in back-to-back months, hauling in huge sums after his 34 felony convictions and erasing Biden’s longstanding financial edge."
Related: Trump Has Picked His Running Mate
What's really hilarious is that just a few short months after Democrats were on record banking on that fundraising advantage to carry them over the finish line, they're now publicly downplaying Trump's newfound lead in the fundraising raise.
In private, however, they're despondent.
But privately, several Democratic strategists and donors were reeling. “There was the strategy of raising all this money on the front end so we could have this huge edge,” said one Biden bundler, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The whole point of it was to come out with a sizable cash advantage and, you know, we’re now even and it’s June. … I have no other word for it other than ‘depression’ among Biden supporters.”
And the Trump campaign is laughing all the way to the bank. “From fundraising, polling, crowds at public events or enthusiasm across the board with America’s voters, there is more and more evidence that the momentum of President Trump coming out of a historic primary election season is growing as we move to November," Trump campaign spokesman Brian Hughes told Politico. "The latest surge in fundraising and wiping out the campaign cash advantage in May reflects this.”
Trump's sentencing in July has the potential to cause yet another surge in fundraising, as does the announcement of his running mate.
It's hard to understand how the Biden campaign could have been so blindsided by Trump's resurgence in fundraising. Biden had been able to fundraise jointly with the DNC for months, but Trump could not. Once Trump won enough delegates to secure the GOP nomination, that finally changed, and he's been competitive ever since. It sure sounds like the Biden campaign simply counted on massive campaign spending to close the deal with the voters, and now they have no strategy left.
