While Democrats will point to Biden’s fundraising and his State of the Union speech as beacons of hope, neither of those seems to be helping his chances in November much right now. A recent Morning Consult poll suggests that the speech may have given him a bump, but that bump is within the margin of error and there’s little reason to believe that it will last. Biden has had some poll bumps in the past that have been short-lived, but in each case Trump has maintained a lead in the RealClearPolitics average since September.
One thing is for sure: Joe Biden is running way behind where he was in the polls back in 2020, when his victory hinged on a few thousand votes in a few select states under dubious circumstances.
And, while Biden boosters will point to the recent Morning Consult poll as proof that Biden is closing the gap with Trump, the latest poll from Fox News takes all the air out of that theory.
The new poll shows that Trump has expanded his lead over Biden; he's leading by five points in a national matchup—the largest lead he’s had in from Fox’s polling.
And it gets worse for Biden from there. Trump’s lead with independents is a whopping 14 points.
🇺🇲 2024 GE - Fox News: #15 (2.8/3.0)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 27, 2024
🟥 Trump 50% (+5)
🟦 Biden 45%
Independents
🟥 Trump 51% (+14)
🟦 Biden 37%
This is the largest lead for Trump in any Fox News poll ever
Last six Fox polls of 2020:
Biden +14
Biden +12
Biden +10
Biden +10
Biden +11
Biden +7 (last poll) https://t.co/2xfKCQIqg0 pic.twitter.com/FxfF8RlRrD
A deeper dive into the poll shows more trouble for Joe Biden.
Are you better off than you were four years ago? That question was asked by Ronald Reagan during a decisive 1980 debate with then-President Jimmy Carter.
Only about 1 in 5 voters today answers yes, according to the latest Fox News national survey.
Just 22% say they are better off than four years ago, while more than twice that many -- 52% -- say they are worse off. One quarter say their situation is the same.
Republicans (72%) and independents (59%) say they are worse off than four years ago, while Democrats say they are better off (37%) or the same (35%).
As Joe Biden continues to tout his economic record, a whopping 73% have a negative view on the economy. This is quite devastating for Joe Biden, even though this is actually down from 83% feeling the same way a year ago. Is this a sign that voters are warming up to Bidenomics?
Not necessary, according to Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson.
"For several months there's been steady chatter on the left that consumer confidence is rising and Biden will surely get credit for this great economy,” Shaw said. "It seems what we are seeing in the data is Democrats coming home – partisanship is informing economic evaluations, not the other way around. Until we see movement among independents and Republicans, color me skeptical."
In other words, Democrats who were likely going to vote for Biden anyway are perceiving the economy as improving. And Biden’s biggest problem is that people don’t see him as a successful president.
"More voters fondly remember Trump's economic successes than can recall any of Biden's. That underscores the challenge Biden faces,” Anderson explains. "He must connect the dots between his major policy initiatives and the economic benefits to not just the overall economy, but all household finances."
Good luck with that. He’s been trying for two years to convince people the economy is great and that he deserves credit for it. It hasn’t worked.
