Joe Biden would likely be in a nursing home right now if not for two people: Barack Obama and Rep. James Clyburn. Despite his many decades in government, the Democratic electorate never actually cared much for him. He was the Kamala Harris of 2008—except he actually waited until after losing badly in Iowa before dropping out. His aspirations for higher office would have ended right there had Barack Obama not named him his running mate. Biden brought absolutely nothing to table in terms of support — he was stuck in single digits during that campaign, as his decades of experience meant literally nothing to a party that had decided that one’s gender or the color of their skin was more important.
The only reason Biden was picked as Obama’s running mate was because his decades in Washington balanced out the fact that Obama’s resume was practically blank. No one actually cared about Biden. They still don’t. In 2020, Biden’s campaign was headed to certain defeat after back-to-back losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, coming in fourth place and fifth place, respectively. It took the endorsement of Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) to turn things around and save Biden’s campaign.
Joe Biden was always a means to an end. He never had the star power of Barack Obama nor the celebrity of Donald Trump. He was just a crusty old white guy whose main purpose was and still is to just be there. That hasn't changed since he occupied the White House. How many times have we seen viral videos of Biden standing around by himself, not sure where to go, with clusters of people around him literally not even aware of his presence or giving a hoot about him?
Related: Is Joe Biden Sabotaging His Campaign Now?
By any measure, his presidency has been a failure, and the American voters have delivered this verdict loud and clear. According to Gallup, Joe Biden has one of the worst third-year polling of any president in the modern era. In fact, only Jimmy Carter had worse ratings. Biden's third-year average approval rating was 39.8%, compared to Carter's 37.4%.
Biden's average approval rating in his third year marks a decline compared to both his first year, where he garnered a 48.9% approval, and his second year, where he held a 41.0% average approval. Despite being better than his third year, they still ranked as the second worst among recent presidents, when only Trump had lower ratings.
The big question for Biden, of course, is whether he can improve his standing in his fourth year before the election, and there's no historical precedent suggesting that it definitely will.
Presidents who saw their approval rating improve were Nixon (+7 percentage points), Reagan (+11 points), Clinton (+8 points), and Obama (+4 points), and they were each reelected. Conversely, three presidents, including the widely popular Eisenhower, observed no significant change in their approval ratings during this transition, with outcomes ranging from reelection to electoral defeat. As Gallup notes, "the data indicate that presidents who successfully won reelection were close to — or exceeded — 50% approval during their fourth year in office."
While arguably there is hope for Joe Biden, the truth is, his current approval ratings are far worse than presidents who were reelected, and the chances of him making up that deficit appear extremely slim.
