In 2020, Rep. Jim Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden, rescuing his candidacy after disappointing performances in both the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary where he secured fourth and fifth place, respectively. This backroom deal to save Biden has since become a major headache for both the president and the Democratic Party because, in exchange for the endorsement, South Carolina was assured of being the first primary state.
Democrat leaders followed through on the promise and gave South Carolina and its less-white population coveted first-in-the-nation status in the 2024 primaries. Iowa and New Hampshire most certainly got the memo, but that isn’t stopping Iowa from holding its caucuses and New Hampshire from holding its primary before South Carolina gets its say.
Naturally, Biden, beholden to both his promise to Clyburn and the officially sanctioned Democrat primary calendar, is likely to skip Iowa and New Hampshire, which Axios reports “seems increasingly likely.”
“Biden’s team is indicating he won’t be on the ballots in those states if they vote before South Carolina, his choice to have the first primary,” explains Axios.
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This normally wouldn’t be problematic, save for the fact that Biden has challengers. One of them, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is polling well enough to actually get a legitimate boost by winning those contests, which would undermine Joe Biden’s candidacy at the worst possible time. In 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson won the New Hampshire primary with less than 50% of the vote — an embarrassing showing for an incumbent president that contributed to his decision to withdraw from the primaries days later.
The Democratic Party is warning Iowa and New Hampshire that they could be stripped of their national convention delegates if they go ahead with their primary contests — which may be worth the risk. Both states appear to be bucking the party, clearly willing to show them they aren’t going to give up their influential primary positions without a fight.
“I believe the DNC’s process was flawed and that top party officials had their own agenda from the start,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) told Axios.
A senior Iowa Democrat agreed: “We are rule followers and want to be part of the process, but we did everything the DNC asked and we got no consideration.”
There’s talk of a write-in campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire for Biden, but that’s a risky strategy that could prove to be more embarrassing for the incumbent than if he’s not a factor at all.
Kennedy is obviously a long-shot candidate, but two victories in a row could send shockwaves through the Democratic primaries. It could even weaken Joe Biden to the point where he loses viability as the party’s presumptive nominee — a situation that could leave the Democrats scrambling to find a replacement. Or it could force them to settle for running Kamala Harris as the heir apparent — a scenario that does not bode well for their chances. Harris polls even worse than Biden, and putting her front and center isn’t likely to improve her standing with the public.
