U.S. Sen. Tim Scott from South Carolina is expected to announce his presidential candidacy very soon. In fact, his announcement may be made as early as this week. This would make him a part of the small but expanding group of GOP candidates that already includes former President Donald Trump, who is currently the frontrunner by a wide margin.
I like Sen. Scott and believe he has a strong future in the Republican Party. His speech at the 2020 Republican National Convention was truly inspiring.
“My grandfather’s 99th birthday would have been tomorrow. Growing up, he had to cross the street if a white person was coming. He suffered the indignity of being forced out of school as a third-grader to pick cotton and never learned to read or write. Yet, he lived to see his grandson become the first African American to be elected to both the United States House and Senate,” Scott said in his speech. “Our family went from cotton to Congress in one lifetime. And that’s why I believe the next American century can be better than the last. There are millions of families like mine across this nation … full of potential, seeking to live the American Dream. And I’m here tonight to tell you that supporting the Republican ticket gives you the best chance of making that dream a reality.”
The Spectator claims three sources confirm that Scott’s announcement is imminent, and normally, this would be exciting news. But in a race that already has Donald Trump in the mix, Scott will face difficulties standing out and will probably be classified as a lower-tier candidate. This is due to the two-man competition between Trump and Ron DeSantis at the top. Nonetheless, presidential campaigns are not solely about winning, and Scott may have other motives, such as expanding his national profile and effectively auditioning to be Trump’s running mate — which is the same reason I suspect Nikki Haley is running.
Currently, Donald Trump leads virtually every national poll by double digits, with an average spread of +26 points, according to Real Clear Politics. Scott is not included in every hypothetical match-up poll, but the ones that feature him show him in the single-digit zone. This is a very weak position to launch a campaign from, especially when going against Trump. Even Ron DeSantis, who has yet to formally enter the race, is polling in double digits. Assuming DeSantis runs, and it looks like he will, the race is shaping up to be a duel between these men — both of whom are likely to select a female running mate.
Another possibility is that Scott intends to establish himself as the alternative to Trump in the event that DeSantis opts not to run — which is possible, albeit not likely. There has been a great deal of discussion about DeSantis’s decline in popularity in polls. One might theorize that DeSantis’s moment in the spotlight has passed. However, I believe this speculation to be erroneous and that DeSantis’s drop in the polls is entirely attributable to the post-indictment rally behind Trump, which is bound to dissipate with time.
The fact is, it’s hard for anyone to be competitive in a field that includes Trump, and the only one who comes close at this point is DeSantis, who, frankly, has a record that looks far more attractive to GOP primary voters than Scott’s. And Scott endorsed Sen. Lisa Murkowski over her more conservative Trump-backed challenger, which won’t sit well with primary voters.
Ultimately, Scott’s presidential bid would be a long shot in 2024, and while I still say he has a strong future in the GOP, he’d probably be best served to wait.
