How Could Trump Do in 2024?

AP Photo/Ben Gray

Though he hasn’t officially announced yet, Donald Trump appears likely to run for president in 2024.

Though it seems incredibly unlikely that he will, Joe Biden says he’ll be running for reelection in 2024.

Despite his lousy poll numbers and advanced age, he’s also the Democrats’ best chance of holding onto the White House.

And based on the polls, that’s not a very good chance.

A new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump leading Biden 48-45, as a large majority of voters (60%) believe that Biden is too old to serve as president and more than half (53%) doubt Biden’s mental fitness. In addition, the poll found that support for the two was split evenly among women, while men backed Trump 50%-43%.

“The collapse of Biden has led to a surge for President Trump on all fronts both in the GOP primary and in a potential general election,” said pollster Mark Penn.

Other polls reflect a similar advantage for Trump.

A poll released this week by Redfield & Wilton Strategies also shows Trump ahead. “Our latest hypothetical voting intention finds Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden, with 42% saying they would vote for Trump (down 2%) and 38% saying they would vote for Biden (down 1%), after weighting by likelihood to vote,” Redfield & Wilton Strategies explained. “Together with our polling from three weeks ago, this poll marks the second lead for Donald Trump over Joe Biden that we have seen in our national polling, including polls conducted in advance of the 2020 Election.”

A recent Rasmussen Reports survey shows Trump leading Biden by a double-digit margin. According to the poll, “Forty-five percent (45%) of voters would choose Trump if the election were held today, while only 32% would vote to reelect Biden. Seventeen percent (17%) say they’d vote for some other candidate.”

The poll also found that only 69% of Biden 2020 voters would vote for him again, with 8% saying they’d switch to Trump in 2024.

Related: MSM Claims Biden’s Approval Ratings Are Recovering… Are They?

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from last month also showed Trump with a lead over Biden. According to that poll, “If the presidential election were today between Biden and Trump, 44% say they would vote for Trump, 40% for Biden, 11% for an unnamed third-party candidate.”

One poll from the Wall Street Journal did have Joe Biden up by 1 point, but that was within the poll’s margin of error.

There’s no doubt that at this point that Trump has a clear edge over Joe Biden in 2024. In the last ten 2024 matchup polls tracked by RealClearPolitics, Trump leads in eight, is tied in one, and is behind in one. The RealClearPolitics average of these 2024 matchups has Trump up 4.2 points, representing an eight-point swing in Trump’s favor since 2020. Given the razor-thin margin of victory Biden had in the official results of several battleground states, this shift would likely translate to Trump not only winning back states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin but probably picking up Nevada and Virginia as well.

The polls have also shown that Biden’s disastrous presidency has dragged down his entire party.

Trump is not expected to make an official announcement about 2024 until after the 2022 midterms.


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