Today is primary day in Florida, Wyoming, and Alaska. Results are forthcoming (see below), but here's the playing field:
Alaska
Let's start here, because this is the race that matters most tonight.
Two-term GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is fighting for his political life against former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, and this isn't some token challenge — it's a genuinely serious threat. Alaska runs on a nonpartisan top-four blanket primary that feeds into ranked-choice voting come November, so today's vote isn't picking a nominee outright — it's just narrowing the field down to the four names that'll actually appear on the general election ballot.
And because Alaska never met a piece of electoral chaos it didn't like, there's a genuine oddity baked into today's ballot too: a second, entirely different candidate who also happens to be named Dan Sullivan is running in the same primary. So today's result determines whether the sitting senator spends the fall campaigning against his own literal name-twin. You can't make this stuff up, and I wouldn't try.
Also on the ballot: Alaska's wide-open governor's race, since Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited and heading for the exit. The same top-four system decides that one too.
One practical note before you go refreshing your browser all night: Alaska's polls don't close until midnight ET, so don't bother waiting up. You won't have real numbers until morning.
Florida: The bellwether
Down in the Sunshine State, Rep. Byron Donalds — Trump-endorsed and the clear frontrunner — is heavily favored to lock up the Republican gubernatorial nomination and succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. He's got nine primary opponents to get past first, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, investor James Fishback, and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner, but nobody's treating this as a nail-biter. A Donalds win here carries real national weight down the road, not just a state-level headline.
On the Democratic side, David Jolly — a former Republican congressman who's since made a career out of criticizing Trump — leads that field heading into tonight.
One issue worth flagging that's cutting clean across party lines this cycle: data centers and AI infrastructure. Voters are furious about rising utility bills, and candidates on both sides are scrambling to put distance between themselves and the hyperscaler projects driving those costs up. Nobody wants to be the guy defending a server farm to a constituent staring at their power bill.
Florida also just wrapped a mid-decade, Republican-led redistricting push back in May, redrawing the House map squarely in the Republicans' favor. That makes tonight's Florida House results a genuine bellwether for which party ends up controlling the chamber next year — watch this one closely.
Wyoming: Quiet, but not nothing
Wyoming voters are picking a successor to retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis, the self-appointed "crypto queen" of the Senate. Meanwhile, at-large House incumbent Rep. Harriet Hageman is heavily favored for re-nomination and will face a female Democrat challenger come November — a rare woman-versus-woman general election matchup this cycle, worth a mention even if the outcome itself isn't much in doubt.
The thread connecting all three
Here's what ties tonight's three primaries together into one story instead of three separate ones: Republican-led redistricting reshaping the map in states like Florida, and the ongoing Democratic-establishment-versus-progressive-left civil war we've been tracking all month right here — the same DSA/Sanders/AOC dynamic that already gave us Mamdani, El-Sayed, and Hong. Tonight's just the next chapter.
Check back through the evening and again tomorrow morning for actual numbers, courtesy of our friends at DDHQ — Alaska in particular won't have anything worth reporting until well after most of you are asleep.
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