The Democrats have some serious problems on their hands for the midterms if this polling data from RMG is anything close to accurate:
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Dec. 8, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at 47%, up 3 points from November. The bump is reflected across each policy issue. Trump’s job approval is highest on fighting crime in U.S. cities (51%) and returning America to its values (50%), and lowest on handling inflation (40%) and tariffs and trade policy (42%). This month’s poll also covered public opinion on the government shutdown, economy, H1-B visas, drug boat strikes, Israel-Hamas conflict, war in Ukraine, and Venezuela. Download the key results here.
“This poll is a clear bounce back from the government shutdown when attitudes of the American public were really going off of a cliff,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “But the concern for inflation – and what’s perceived as the administration’s failure to deal with it – is the dominant thing weighing down the administration. The State of the Union will be an important opportunity for the President to address some of these issues.”
Another poll, from OSZ, show the following:
Using the U.S. military to target cartel drug smugglers in Latin America
🟢 Support: 58%
🔴 Oppose: 42%
Who has done a better job as President Trump vs Biden
🔴 Trump: 53% (+6)
🔵 Biden: 47%
Meanwhile, an Napolitan News/RMG poll shows:
2026 Generic congressional ballot
🔴 Republicans: 48% (+4)
🔵 Democrats: 44%
Napolitan News/RMG poll | 12/1-12/4 pic.twitter.com/94HlaNib6E
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) December 6, 2025
Now, understand: I don't leap at just any outlier poll. RMG was the only pollster to get the numbers of last November's election correctly. Meanwhile, check this out from Election Wizard:
🚨BREAKING: President Trump’s approval rating CLIMBS by 5 points since November, Harvard/Harris reports.
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) December 8, 2025
🟢Approve: 47% (+3)
🟤Disapprove: 49% (-2)
(shift vs Nov) | 12/2-4 | 2,204 RB pic.twitter.com/qY7b47xOwn
That's not only higher than it was last month, but it's also within the margin of error.
Now, why is this important? It's because POTUS approval ratings are usually a pretty good predictor of midterm elections. Traditionally, POTUS approval numbers dip about a year into their second term. Not so here. The numbers for Trump are going up, not down. Even given a static situation with congressional districts, meaning no redistricting, this suggests a good path to the GOP holding the House.
That said, we all know congressional redistricting is in play. Then, too, are the voter registration trends, and both of those are at the moment seriously favoring the GOP. The projections work a couple different ways, but conservatively, the numbers at the moment suggest the GOP picking up at least one, if not two, seats in the House.
Granted, that sounds smallish. But it's actually showing signs of being much larger if you add in the registration figures. In fact, looking at the state-by-state voter registration figures (in the states that actually register by party), just about all the pollsters are suggesting Democrats are losing voters by the gallon.
The bottom line here is that, despite the bravado being shown by the Democrats, the midterms are out of their reach, statistically speaking. Also, given the registration numbers I'm seeing, Democrats are going to have a very long and I think insurmountable uphill climb to 270 in 2028.
