Playing the Endorsement Game

Campaign season is upon us, which means endorsements are rolling in on an almost-daily basis. Of course, the big-ticket item this year is the presidential race, and Republican politicians at all levels of government are facing a big decision.

Should they endorse Donald Trump, the clear favorite for the GOP nomination? And if so, when?

Trump has certainly racked up a ton of endorsements, but that doesn’t mean publicly backing him is a no-brainer for GOP candidates and officeholders. As with everything a politician does, there’s a risk/reward calculation associated with endorsing another candidate for office, and that certainly applies in the case of President Trump. The former president remains popular with a large segment of Republican voters, but he also has plenty of detractors, and although the polls suggest the nomination is his to lose, it’s not guaranteed.

Let’s look at the potential risks and rewards involved.

Risks include alienating voters who oppose or simply don’t like Trump, expending political capital to defend Trump’s reputation against insinuations of wrongdoing associated with dozens of state and federal indictments, and taking a hit to their political brand if Trump doesn’t end up winning the nomination.

Rewards include ingratiating themselves with Trump supporters, boosting their profile by backing the eventual winner of the nomination, advancing a preferred political agenda, and earning Trump’s favor, which could land them a cabinet spot or the vice presidency if he returns to the White House.

Of course, the timing of an endorsement is also consequential. There’s a big difference between backing someone in the early stages of a contest and waiting until it’s time to vote, when there’s not much of an opportunity to campaign with the candidate and the outcome is much more predictable. The more uncertain the outcome, the greater an endorsement’s potential risk or reward.

Trump understands this, and you can be sure he’s taking note of who’s willing to stick their neck out for him. While Trump’s positions on contentious political issues have evolved over time, one thing that has remained constant throughout his career is the transactional nature of his relationships and the value he puts on loyalty.

Of course, Trump has made hundreds of endorsements himself, perhaps none so consequential as that for Ron DeSantis over the establishment pick for governor of Florida during the 2018 Republican primary.

DeSantis became a household name in 2020 for quickly reopening his state after the initial COVID-19 lockdowns, and he has grown his profile since then by racking up a slew of wins in the culture war. After winning reelection in a landslide last year, he challenged Trump in running for the presidency himself, committing what the former president and his supporters consider a grave act of betrayal.

With a commanding lead in the polls, Trump and some of his allies have urged DeSantis and the other candidates for the GOP nomination to drop out and encourage their supporters to unite around him, but it appears his most serious rivals will continue to campaign through at least the first few primary contests.

Given that dynamic, several politicians have announced they’re backing a specific candidate. Arguably, the most notable of these endorsements are those made by governors, who, being the most powerful elected executive in each state, wield a great amount of influence within their party.

Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are the only GOP candidates for the presidency who have been endorsed by a current governor (Republican Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb endorsed Mike Pence before he dropped out), with seven backing Trump and two supporting DeSantis.

Two of the most prominent governors to endorse Trump are Texas Governor Greg Abbott and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem.

Abbott recently announced he’s supporting Trump because he’s the “clear choice” to “secure the border and prioritize national security." During a campaign rally in September, Noem endorsed Trump because he’s “[t]he ONLY person in this race who will put America back on its foundation.”

Other governors backing Trump include Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas (his press secretary for nearly two years), South Carolina’s Henry McMaster (who succeeded Trump rival Nikki Haley in that role), Mike Dunleavy of Alaska, Tate Reeves of Mississippi, and West Virginia’s Jim Justice (who's running for the U.S. Senate to succeed retiring Democrat incumbent Joe Manchin).

Trump has praised Noem for keeping her state open during the COVID-19 pandemic and has said he would be open to selecting her as his running mate should he win the nomination.

Although Abbott endorsed U.S. Senator Ted Cruz for the presidency in 2016, he has since become a strong advocate for Trump, and he's pledged to continue building the border wall the former president started. Abbott has also repeatedly highlighted the Biden administration's border security failures.

Meanwhile Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt and Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds have endorsed DeSantis.

Stitt announced his support for DeSantis shortly after the Florida governor launched his campaign, saying he “is a strong conservative and principled leader.”

Last year, prior to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Stitt signed a bill outlawing abortion from conception. Trump, on the other hand, has called legislation signed by DeSantis limiting aborting after six weeks “too harsh.”

Trump criticized Stitt for backing his opponent after receiving his endorsement for governor.

Earlier this month, Reynolds became the first Iowa governor to endorse a presidential candidate since Terry Branstad expressed his support for Bob Dole ahead of the 1996 caucuses. She said she’s backing DeSantis because he has “the moral conviction to do what’s right & the ability to actually do what he promises.”

Ahead of Reynolds’s rumored endorsement, Trump attacked her for being “disloyal,” saying that backing DeSantis would “be the end of her political career.”

Clearly, the endorsement game is not one for the faint of heart.

Who will come out the winner? We’ll have to play the game to find out.