What Are Early Voting Trends Telling Us?

AP Photo/Matthew Brown

We conservatives have had a love-hate relationship with the polls this election season. I suppose that’s always the case, but the speculation of a red wave has made this year’s polling a bigger area of interest than in other years.


However, as the midterm elections draw ever closer, the GOP is seeing some encouraging signs from early voting data. And, while early voting numbers aren’t always the best indicator of how things will really go, the trends we’re seeing this year are encouraging.

On Friday night, I attended an event where Erick Erickson talked about the state of play after the first few weeks of early voting in some states. He had spent a good chunk of the day on the phone with experts to share trends with the eager audience, and the trends we’re seeing so far can bring conservatives some comfort.

Since he lives in Georgia and the event took place just north of Atlanta, the focus of the night’s announcements was the Peach State. The top counties in terms of turnout have been in GOP-friendly areas, which is a new phenomenon for early voting in Georgia, which Democrats tend to favor over voting on Election Day.

Erickson compared voting patterns to grocery shopping, at least in Georgia. He said that, much in the same way that shoppers buy the same items at the same stores, Democrats tend to vote early, while Republicans tend to wait until Election Day. This year, that pattern isn’t bearing out the same way.

So far, 26.7% of the early voting totals have been black voters, which is down from the typical black turnout, which usually runs above 30%. Most of the black turnout has been men, 33% of whom will vote for Herschel Walker, according to polling. Erickson said that if early voting trends hold up, Walker could win without a runoff.


As far as the governor’s race is concerned, Democrats have abandoned Stacey Abrams in terms of active campaigning. They see the writing on the wall, even if her campaign staff doesn’t.

“We’ll finally be rid of Stacey Abrams,” Erickson said to raucous applause.

Recommended: Interview With Herschel Walker: Let’s Show the Elites That ‘This Is Not the New Normal’

Shifting the focus to other states, Republicans have never led Democrats in early voting numbers in Florida. Now the GOP is in the lead.

In Miami-Dade County, Republicans are only 2,500 votes behind the Democrats in early voting; contrast that to this time in 2020, when the GOP trailed by 20,000 early votes.

Other states are showing us good news as well. Texas Democrats aren’t voting early in the same numbers as previous years, and in Oregon, Republicans are at parity with the Democrats. In North Carolina, Democrats are ahead by smaller margins than they were in 2018 or 2020 — and this includes college towns.

So be encouraged, conservatives. But don’t get complacent. Be sure to vote, and be sure to encourage your conservative family and friends to make their voices heard in the voting booth too. We can do this.


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