Georgia’s Senate race is one of the midterm contests that has garnered nationwide attention. For starters, it features two black candidates in a Southern state that is still emerging from generations of racial tension. Incumbent senator Raphael Warnock, a radical pastor who has become somewhat of a Democrat darling, is facing off against Georgia Bulldogs football great and Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker on the Republican side.
The race has been a tight one, with Warnock enjoying an edge throughout most of the campaign season. Walker’s political inexperience and his past mental health struggles — which he says he has overcome — have become lines of attack for Democrats (and some Republicans).
But a new poll shows that the tide could be turning in Walker’s favor, as many Georgia conservatives have suggested would happen. Emerson College has Walker leading Warnock by a margin of 46% to 44%. While that’s well within the margin of error, it shows a shift that benefits Walker.
“Walker leads Warnock among rural voters 58% to 24% while Warnock leads Walker 66% to 25% among urban voters. In the suburbs, voters are breaking for Walker by a nine-point margin, 50% to 41%,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
The RealClearPolitics average, which has shown Warnock leading by as much as nine points throughout the summer, is tightening as well. The current average has Warnock up by 3.3 points, with Emerson’s poll no doubt boosting Walker.
Some have suggested that Warnock’s support for the White House’s student loan forgiveness action has moved voters away from him and toward Walker.
Emerson poll in GEORGIA — conducted entirely after Biden student loan relief rollout — shows Herschel Walker pulling ahead of Raphael Warnock.
Warnock the main swing-state Dem senator supportive of the Biden plan.
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) August 30, 2022
Then again, there’s always a chance that a certain PJ Media article (see the Related link below) may have helped a little too.
Related: Don’t Count Out the ‘Bad’ GOP Senate Candidates
In other news from the poll, Georgia voters prefer the GOP on a generic congressional ballot, to the tune of 51% to 46%. And in a hypothetical 2024 matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the former president leads the current president by the same 51%-46% margin.
“Younger voters, aged 18-34, are driving Trump’s performance in Georgia,” Kimball pointed out. “This group, who voted for Biden over Trump in 2020 63% to 30%, have narrowed their support to 53% to 46%. Their support has receded while still supporting the Democratic candidates Warnock and Abrams at 63% each. This cohort of younger voters also have the lowest approval ratings of the President: 34% approve and 66% disapprove of Biden.”
The raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home has led 36% of those surveyed to be more likely to vote for him, while 30% are less likely to vote for him and 31% haven’t changed their candidate preference as a result of the raid.
Gov. Brian Kemp’s lead over Stacey Abrams has tightened slightly to four points in the Emerson College poll. Fifty-eight percent of voters surveyed still expect Kemp to win. RealClearPolitics shows Kemp with a 4.2-point advantage.
The economy continues to be a driving factor in the 2022 midterms, with 36% of voters saying that economic issues are the most important issues for them. No other issue even polls close.
Whether this poll serves as an indication that the Democrats’ summer polling bump is subsiding remains to be seen, but it’s definitely good news for Georgia Republicans, who are echoing the words of the late Georgia Bulldogs broadcasting legend, Larry Munson: “There goes Herschel! There goes Herschel!“
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