As the 2020 midterm elections get closer, we continue to look for signs of the red wave that’s about the hit the country. Like forecasters watching for waves to turn to tsunamis after earthquakes, we’re watching the political waves for indications that the GOP is in for a strong performance in November.
The Biden administration’s combination of incompetence and arrogance makes a red tsunami ever more likely. Inflation is spiraling out of control and the baby formula crisis has shone a light on the administration’s failures. Yet Biden and his team are banking on the reversal of Roe v. Wade, “assaults on our democracy” (which are actually assaults on the Democrats’ ability to cling to power), and accusations of racism to gin up the far-left base.
None of these issues is going to make people forget that their paychecks aren’t going as far as they used to, that they have to shell out more every time they fill up their gas tank, and that parents are scrambling to find ways to feed their babies. To turn the tables on the Democrats by way of quoting James Carville, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
It’s not just hopeful conservatives who are watching for the red tsunami warnings to emerge. The Cook Political Report has shifted some of its ratings of key races, and 10 of 12 of those shifts favor the GOP.
“As the parties navigate primaries and begin polling and placing fall ad buys, Republicans’ House advantage looks as robust as ever,” writes David Wasserman. For independent voters, inflation has become such a dominant concern that neither a Supreme Court ruling on Roe v. Wade nor January 6 hearings are likely to drastically alter the midterms’ trajectory, and multiple district-level surveys show Democratic incumbents in perilous shape against unknown GOP challengers.”
NEW at @CookPolitical: 12 House rating changes, all but two in Republicans' direction. Full analysis: https://t.co/Fkh8IivsZD pic.twitter.com/i29BwrmCLA
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 26, 2022
The only changes in those races that don’t favor the GOP are Young Kim’s race in California — Cook only downgraded that contest from “Likely R” to “Lean R,” which means she can still pull off the win — and Lauren Underwood’s race in Illinois, which Cook shifted from “Lean D” to “Likely D.”
Related: Yet Another Omen of Impending Democrat Doom in the 2022 Midterms
What’s more, Wasserman points out that Democrats are going to have to pull out all the stops to win in some districts.
“Given that President Biden’s job approval is underwater in dozens of districts he carried in 2020, any Democrat sitting in a single-digit Biden seat (or a Trump seat) is at severe risk and even a few in seats Biden carried by 10 to 15 points could lose — particularly in ‘orphan’ states without competitive statewide races driving turnout,” he notes. “For many Democrats, going ‘scorched earth’ against still-undefined GOP nominees looks like the only path to survival.”
On top of those rating shifts, the Cook Political Report now predicts a gain of 25-30 House seats for the Republicans.
NEW at @CookPolitical: we're revising our November House outlook to a GOP gain of 20-35 seats. Full ratings: https://t.co/mAdCOtLpRZ pic.twitter.com/BxLPfP8FYO
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 26, 2022
Take a closer look at the second chart. Every one of the 13 “likely Democratic” seats are already safely in Democrat hands. The 11 “likely Republican” seats include the GOP taking three from the Democrats.
It’s a similar scenario for the seats that aren’t such sure things. Twelve “lean Democratic” seats include one steal from the Republicans, while of the nine seats that the Cook Political Report has labeled “leans Republican,” six are currently Democrat-held seats.
I don’t know if it’s time to issue the tsunami warnings just yet, but the signs are looking good for a significant red wave. Let’s hope and pray that these trends keep up.
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