The Ceasefire Deal Sucks

I'm not a businessman, nor do I aspire to be. I'm no good at wheeling and dealing. I hate buying used cars. When vacationing south of the Rio Grande, I usually fork over the "tourist price" for the subpar earthenware goods being peddled in dusty, open air markets, so racked with guilt am I at the thought of haggling the poor schmuck down to the point where not all his kids will eat tonight.

But I do like a good game of Texas Hold 'Em. And I've played enough poker to know that when you're holding almost all the chips, as well as pocket aces on the flop, that it's NOT the time to fold the all-in pot to the quivering, desperate loser across the table.

And as a young lad, I'd played enough Monopoly to know that when you've spent the entire game acquiring every property on the board and are just waiting out your opponent for one or two more turns before he inevitably goes bankrupt, that it's NOT the time to unilaterally give him back all the property you've fairly won from him.

So it caught me by surprise to see that not only had Israel agreed to a horrible, one-sided deal with Hamas (of which the latter is already changing the terms), but that Trump's transition team had played a significant part in pressuring Israel to accept the deal. 

Based on what we know so far, Israel is...again...releasing a lopsided amount of hundreds of Palestinian terrorists (at varying exchange rates of between 30:1 to 50:1) for the remaining 97 hostages, only some of whom are still alive.

The ceasefire commits Israel to gradually withdraw from both the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors, both strategically indispensable, and the latter absolutely vital to Hamas for purposes of rearming. As of this writing, Israel holds incontestable control over both corridors.

The final phase of the ceasefire has a complete Israeli withdrawal, to be followed by the reconstruction of Gaza under "international" supervision. Translation: the UN will turn a blind eye...or lend an assisting hand...as Hamas quickly and brutally reasserts control and rebuilds its forces.

Assuming the ceasefire holds and Hamas honors the terms (a laughable pipe dream even in the most surreal of LSD-fueled fever dreams), what will Gaza look like a year from now? Hamas in full control, its ranks swelled by the prisoner swap, and more weapons flowing in across the border in preparation for the next attack on Israeli population centers. In no universe would that be seen as anything other than a smug Hamas victory and a humiliating Israeli surrender.

It doesn't take Nostradamus to predict that this suicidal snatching defeat from the jaws of victory all but guarantees future attacks against Israel that will make 10/7 look like a walk in the park. There will be more murder, more hostages, and more antisemitic insistence worldwide that Israelis are to blame for not subjecting themselves to genocide enthusiastically enough.

Why would Israel ever agree to this? Rather, why would an incoming Republican administration known for its hawkishness on Islamic terrorism pressure Israel to ever agree to this?

Hamas is on the ropes. Its leadership has been decimated, its overseas support cut off, and its strongholds conquered. This ceasefire, should it result in Israel abiding by its terms, would be military and geopolitical blunder on a scale that would make our disastrous Afghan withdrawal look like Napoleonic genius in comparison.

On his worst day, Joe Biden couldn't get Israel to agree to such an astronomically horrible deal. And this is ceasefire is something Team Trump is bragging about?

The only way I can make any sense of that is the hope that this is simply Trump playing four dimensional chess. Maybe there are backdoor communications occurring between Team Trump and the Israeli government, in which a ceasefire is agreed to in order to secure the release of hostages, after which Israel will be free to resume and finish the war the moment Hamas breaks the truce. Or maybe Netanyahu has agreed to the ceasefire on the condition that, during the second Trump administration, Iran is permanently neutralized as a threat, allowing Hamas to die on the vine.

If this is the case, and one of these scenarios or something similar pans out over the next year or so, then so be it. But if this is not the case...and it turns out that Trump actually coerced Israel into accepting this sick abortion of a deal on its merits alone...then this will easily stand as his worst decision as president. This will be his Chamberlain "peace in our time" moment.

Why should we care? Because an attack anywhere on the West is an attack on the entire West. We can hang together, or we can hang separately from a crane in a public square. Europeans thought they could placate Islamic supremacists by siding with them against Israel (and, to a certain extent, against America). And those Islamic supremacists have returned the favor by raping British girls, decapitating French priests, and running over German market-goers. 

Unfortunately, there is a depressing number of American conservatives who think the way these naïve Europeans do, but by ignoring instead of placating. They think that waving it off as "over there" and "none of our business" will protect us the way our oceans protected us in Washington's time.

I hate to be the one to break it to you, son, but a lot has happened since Sept. 10, 2001.

Again, I hope Trump has something up his sleeve that he can't publicly reveal. I hope that, for once, it's the West rather than the Islamic terrorists that is using a ceasefire as a stepping stone to further the eventual destruction of their enemy. It's so outlandishly out of character for Trump to even be seen in the vicinity of a deal this wretched. I'm hoping this has some sort of "Usual Suspects" ending. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised to witness some sort of Trumpian maneuver that blindsides these Hamas degenerates and consigns them to the dustbin of failed death cults.

And on the day that happens, I'll pen an article lambasting myself and my erroneous assumptions. But until that day, this ceasefire stands as a badge of shame, a revelation of weakness, and a betrayal of our values.