Ike models shift back north

After trending to the “left” for three days, the computer models have suddenly lurched back to the “right” this afternoon, and are now predicting that Hurricane Ike will take a right-hand turn over the western Gulf before making landfall in Texas.

The models’ landfall “consensus,” which only this morning favored a landfall south of Corpus Christi, is now centered on the Matagorda Bay area, roughly halfway between Corpus Christi and Freeport.

It’s worth noting that any landfall between Freeport and Galveston by a sufficiently powerful hurricane would be considered a “worst-case scenario” for the Houston/Galveston area. The new model consensus is uncomfortably close to such a scenario, about 75-100 down the coast. (Of course, the severity of any strike depends on Ike’s landfall intensity, which is also up in the air. Alan Sullivan thinks a more northward track would “turn Ike into a zone of shear, cooler water, and interaction with an approaching cold front . . . [and] would not be likely to put a major hurricane ashore. Ike would weaken.”)

The Houston Chronicle‘s Eric Berger is hosting a live chat right now about Ike. After it finishes, it will be archived. Also, Berger has a post about where storm surge would occur in a Category 3 landfall on Galveston Island, and how bad it would be, depending on the exact location of landfall (which makes a huge difference). Also, here’s a storm surge map showing the projected worst-case surge for each category of hurricane.

Anyway… it will be very interesting to see what the National Hurricane Center does with the official forecast track — currently centered very close to Corpus Christi — in the 5:00 PM EDT advisory. The NHC likes to avoid the “ping-pong effect” in its predictions, but I would expect at least a slight adjustment to the north.

Of course, the standard caveat applies: we’re dealing with a four-day forecast here, and such forecasts are subject to errors of several hundred miles. Anyone within the “cone of uncertainty” (and occasionally, people outside of it!) is still at risk for a landfall within the next five days. Plan accordingly.

I’ll have more to say about Ike later. Also, a programming note: I will be appearing on Pajamas TV‘s “PJTV Daily” between 6:00 and 7:00 PM EDT tonight, talking about Ike. My segment will probably air around 6:15, give or take. I believe you have to be a subscriber to watch.